Friday, April 23, 2010

Kentucky Derby Seminar —

I will be at Fiesta Rancho on Thursday afternoon – 4/29  – for a meet and greet –VIP luncheon.  We will be discussing the KD in depth.  

To qualify for the “Fiesta-VIP-Luncheon” , sign up for an Amigo Card, play before 4/27 and meet with a supervisor to get your invite”.

Hollywood Park…Race #6…Sometimes value is the right decision-maker…We have 3 horses pretty evenly matched when it comes to the PPN, which is the most predictive indicator I have ever found, everthing else is less predictive.  The PPN found on the Power Page includes other handicapping key factors as a result of the way a horse actually performs on the track.  For example if a very good trainer has a horse the horse tends to perform better, racing faster, thereby increasing the PPN.  so while we say that our PPN doesn’t include trainer information, it actually does as a result of how fast a horse actually races…   In this scenerio, we have Frequent Fame, Krakow Queen and Sine’n Time, each could make a sensible Key horse or win/place wager…But the difference here is that Frequent Fame has a 10/1  morning line suggesting a 9% chance of winning and Krakow Queen has a 3/1 morning line suggesting a 25% chance of winning while Shine’n Time has a 6% chance of winning.  Clearly Krakow Queen is an underlay on probability and will be an underlay on value at post time, most likely!   So the two horses that actually could be real Win- Price-Overlays are
Frequent Fame and Shine’n Time… I like Frequent Fame a whole lot better on handicapping and on the PPN, so the 3% difference in probability is meaningless….I am all over Frequent Fame at odds of 6/1 or higher!

Bonus Play for New York will be  e-mailed up until 11AM PT….Bonus play for Hollywood will be e-mailed up until 6:30 PM PT  (Night racing)