This is truly a wonderful Kentucky Derby, the depth of the field is so deep and talented. We may never see such a Run for the Roses as this for a long- long time. Here’s an interesting point made by Andy Beyer that Todd Pletcher is 1 for 31 in Kentucky Derby Starters, and now he has 5 talented runner ready to set sail for the coveted win. So how do we look at Pletcher’s fabulous 5 and how do we look at his past record in the KD… I thought that Andy Beyer made one very good point on how good Pletcher’s horses do off longer rest periods, but that can’t work in the Kentucky Derby. Andy presented some very compelling stats to support his point of view with the suggestion being that Pletcher is not as capable a trainer with horses who must race to their best at particular point in time off a series of races! He went on to use the poor performance of Gemologist as an example and then made an evaluation of the Wood Memorial od 2012 — that I disagree with — to support his sense on why Gemologist races poorly in the Derby. The number for the Wood Memorial last year on my speed figures was in line with this class of horse. It wasn’t as good as this years Wood, but certainly okay and could have served as a good prep to win the Derby last year. For whatever the reasons that Gemologist races poorly, it had nothing to do with the way the Wood Memorial rated out — in my opinion!
He also made a comment on Verrazano’s Wood Memorial that seemed to again be designed to support his handicapping bias but didn’t seem match up to the ratings that I have for this years Wood Memorial. This year’s Wood Memorial produced a really good figure on my set of speed ratings. It just happened to be very competitive, because there were many very competitive horses in the race such as Normandy Invasion and Vyjack to fight with Verrazano. None fo these three are not run of the mill horses. I thought they all raced most excellently and it was a hard fought victory for Verrazano.
There is much to discuss about Verrazano’s form, the hard challenge he repelled from Normandy Invasion will be the stuff of many discussions. Will it cause him to bounce or will he move forward off that very outstanding effort! Bounce or flourish… I took great pains to discuss this very point in the DETAIL section of my Kentucky Derby/triple Crown Video presentation. I hope if you find this interesting, you will consider getting a password and go to hear my analysis and forecast for Verrazano and all the rest…
NO doubt it’s very hard to get a horse fit and ready for the KD, but you need lots of luck and the right kind of horses to win the KD. His operation tends to have him entering horses in the same way that his ex-boss entered horses in the KD. When I started in this game, the people like Charlie Wittingham — in paritcular — and many other class trainers didn’t send a horse to the KD, unless it was the right kind of horse. They didn’t need all that much luck to win the KD, because they had a horse that was fit for the Derby in every respect. It in this argument that we can start to understand the crazy training patterns they are coming up with today, because these are not the “right kind of horses” — at least for the most part. You and I, that’s what we are going to be trying to do for the next few days is trying to find if there is a “right kind of horse for the KD”!
I hope to see everyone out at Sunset Station on Friday night at 6:00 PM…