Wednesday May 5, 2010
Resulting the Derby… I will make a full report for your review by Friday. You will be able to receive that report with any purchase of any product starting Friday.
Resulting Free Plays:
Friday’s FREE Play Hollywood…Race #5…Sirocco Strike won paying $6.40…
Saturday’s Free Play…Lichtenstein …Scratched…
Sunday’s Free Play…Hollywood – Race #7… Fifie’s Fantasy won paying $4.40
Wednesday Free Play…Hollywood – Race #5…Last night when I handicapped this race, I assumed that Island of Zen would be 4/5 on the morning line. But the morning line is 5/2. The morning line suggest Island of Zen would be a winner about 28% of the time (3/1 would be break even at 25% of the time, without noting “take”) and at the 4/5 odds this horse appears to me, I am expecting this filly to win about 55% of the time. Well that’s a giant spread. So as long as this filly has a morning line over 3/2 I have enough margin for error in judgement to make a double unit wager. Interestingly enough, some people do not realize but the best earning plays are low priced overlays, not high priced overlays. That’s a subject for another discussion! So here it is, I am making a Win wager and a double unit at 3/2 or higher! Good Luck.