April 1, 2017 … The Preps (both Fla. and La.)
The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park Handicapped for: FAST
Race #14
1 STATE OF HONO ( ) 77.3* Caught all the toughies in Tampa, easily the strength of this pace scenario, should be too much w/ this group, on speed biased Gulfstream strip. BATTALION RUN ( ) 75.5 Rated against Dec 31st effort – his best. ALWAYS DREAMI ( ) 74.8 Pletcher’s other runner, rated off his Best on on Aug 20th… total “projection”. GUNNEVERA ( ) 73.8* Nice line running with slower, there is upside on this colt. IMPRESSIVE ED ( ) 71.3 UNBRIDLED HOL ( ) 70.8 CHARLIE THE G ( ) 70.8 THREE RULES ( ) 69.5 TALK LOGISTIC ( ) 68.8 QUINIENTOS (p) 68.0 COLEMAN ROCKY (p) 67.5
This season has been a departure from the previous several years, with the best Prep races occurring in Tampa Bay and at Oaklawn Park. According to my Speed Figures, McCraken and Tapwrit are the main story so far, with One Liner running the one big figure at Oaklawn Park. Hence, followed up,beating a suspect crew in the Sunland Derby, flattering One Liner.
Today’s, race features State of Honor and Gunnevera. To me, State of Honor has been doing much more, with much better! His outcomes have all been very good, except for the fact that he has finished behind Tapwrit and McCraken – no shame there and they are NOT here.
Gunnevera has raced against a very slow bunch in Florida – so far. The only true KD contender he defeated, is the damaged Classic Empire. But on his own, he is developing nicely, so I like him, but just not enough to select him against State of Honor — a clear POP OUT KEY.
The Louisiana Derby at The Fair Grounds Handicapped for: FAST
Race #11
GIRVIN ( ) 77.0 Delivered big last out – in his 3rd race, good horses can usually deliver twice. I believe this is a very good horse. The 77.0 is a solid rating, bound for the KD. GUEST SUITE ( ) 75.0* Nicely seasoned for a class trainer, made a solid forward move in last effort and I expect another today – hence the STAR. LOCAL HERO ( ) 74.3 Early speed type, seems to have run a very Big effort in last, I have uprated him. PATCH ( ) 73.8* Pletcher ships in with lightly raced colt, We have seen them explode in the 3rd race in this class. Not likely to explode enuf. HOLLYWOOD HAN ( ) 73.5 1 MONACO ( ) 73.3 SENIOR INVEST ( ) 73.3 SORRY ERIK (m) 71.5 HOTFOOT ( ) 70.0
In many way, this edition of the Louisiana Derby is the more interesting of the two major preps – this one and the Florida Derby. The first reason is my interest in Girvin who seems to be developing, he is on the cusp of being good enough to run with McCraken, Tapwrit and One Liner to name the top 3 KD contenders for me – right now. If he does move to the 77.0 I have assigned him, then he is right there with another forward move. Very possible. But he isn’t such a fun bet with the M/L of 8/5 – and I make him more like 3/5 at post time – just my opinion.
Another reason I think this is an interesting race, there are a number of horses that look like they have terrific upside. However, only Guest Suite has a chance to upset Girvin if he mis-steps right now, again this is just my opinion. From this race, we might see some future stars that are not quite ready for primetime, but might become “primetimers” down the road.
Bias Report…
Aqueduct … (3-31-2017) The Rail path seemed a bit slow… Outside lines were very decent.
Santa Anita… (3-31-2017) Edge to inside and speed…
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Thursday 3-30-2017
Gulfstream Park Race #6 Art Bijou off at 10/1 — talk about terrible picks…
Santa Anita Race #1 Vibe off at 5/2… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside, seemed to not respond when needed on the far turn, but then suddenly settled on the straight, to a lively whip from Desormeaux and won going away with a late furry in a slowish time…Winning paying $7.20… made the exacta and trifecta.
Friday (3-31-2017)
Aqueduct … Race # 8 The Gomper off at 4/1… broke well to be in and amongst horses, eased back to last, while comfortable, but could not make up any ground, while not losing any additional ground, appeared to need a class drop… overall a C- type play.
Santa Anita… Race #6 That’s A Lady off at 2/1… didn’t show any early lick and dropped surprisingly off the early pace — as Tyler Baze was doing some ODD REIGN work to apparently try to get the horse interested. However, held position on the rail and started to make up ground once they straightened into the stretch, was going best at the end, but only managed to get the place… converted the exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta so the play worked out, but no win money…just the PLACE.
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/31/17)
NY — Total Return $22.10, Total Cost $ 32.00, ROI Total $0.69/$1.00
SA — Total Return $77.20, Total Cost $ 48.00, ROI Total $1.61/$1.00
GP – Total Return $~~~, Total Cost $ 8.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 202.60
Total Cost $ 202.00
ROI $1.00 (thru 3-31-2017)