It’s the Belmont Stakes Day…

This actually means to deliver two of the best racing cards you are ever going to want to see. There is simply a “plethora” of great races — populated with terrific racers!  We should all have a blast and there are tons of great value propositions to go after!

One more comment on the Belmont.  One reader of this space took exception to my comment that Materiality has shown the best early speed of any of the horses in the Belmont, even more early lick than American Pharoah!  I also think this natural early speed for Materiality is an advantage for him.  The reader quoted me the internal figs for Materiality off his races at the very slow (on those days) at Gulfstream Park.    He was looking at those internals as if 1:12 for 6 furlongs at Gulfstream was the same as 1:12 at anther track.  That’s simply not the case, in reality it’s NEVER THE CASE.

That’s why professional horse players always use reliable Speed Figures to get a feel for the actual way horses have raced, adjust for Daily Track Variant.  I have made Speed Figures for nearly 25 years and would never make a wager without having them in my right hand.  Because the Speed Figures I use, give me a better way to compare both Early Speed and overall ability, especially when comparing horses who have raced at different tracks.  It is fair to say, that a single FAST number is not very significant on it’s own, by itself.  But once we see a pattern of fast numbers, it becomes clear, the relative strength of each horse…

In tomorrow’s Belmont, it looks clearly like there are 3 fairly evenly matched horse, American Pharoah, Materialtiy and Frosted.  The balance of the field seems a little over-matched by these 3.  There is some question as to who the 4th and 5th add-in horses might be.  I will let everyone make their own decisions.  But it’s only fair, that everyone know’s my “like” in this race.  And it’s Materiality.  I don’t know exactly the tactic the J. R. Velasquez will use, but I feel he will be closely placed early, as will American Pharoah and we will find out who really and truly wants to get 1 1/2 mile.  IF they get caught up in a dual, that might really help Frosted.  But I remember clearly, Affirmed and Alydar literally running as if they were 1 horse for the entire 1 1/2 and pulling away from the rest.  They were both true 1 1/2 horses – so they were better — and the farther they went, the better  they were!

IN the end, the best suited of these 3, to run the 1 1/2 mile distance will almost surely prevail.  Not necessarily the best horse, but definitely the best of these 3 who are suited to get 1 1/2 mile.  The early speed that I believe Materiality has, is just a very small advantage.

I am expecting a GREAT RACE, and maybe a GREAT CHAMPION will emerge…

BY THE WAY… THE BELMONT STAKES only a part of the Belmont Card’s — PP & KHSS…