The King is NOT Dead…

How did American Pharoah lose?  Before I answer that question, I want to offer “respect” to Frosted – who really was the instrument of American Pharoah’s defeat.  Frosted came to play today and he turned it up to the max, which as it turns out was not enough for him, but just enough to take the finish out of the great American Pharoah.  I felt that Texas Red was the clear “next” horse to consider, while others, such as Patrick M. who offers his opinions alongside of Jon Lindo and myself each day on Race Day Las Vegas, felt that Frosted was clearly the 2nd best.   While that is certainly not exactly clear at this time, because it’s now clear that Keen Ice has thrown his hat into the ring.  And then their is Gimme De Lute on the West Coast and a whole slew of others that are really talented, including the late developing RunHappy who is really the horse of the day, with his amazing – near track record at 7 furlongs – effort in King’s Bishop .

Consider this- the multi Grade 1 sprint winner, Private Tales who won the Forego against the best older sprinters in the country, would have been sucking wind behind RunHappy who absolutely blazed…

Let’s get back to American Pharoah, this is a classic case of a horse bouncing.  Now people often thing that horses who bounce look poor before the race, well that’s simply not true.  If they looked poor before the race, they would NOT RUN!  It’s usually just the exact opposite, they look great, they eat up great and they work great, but somewhere during the running of the race, they start to feel the effects of their combined previous efforts.  With great horses, they can do more for longer, with cheaper horses it happens more quickly.  Let’s take a quick look at Texas Red, Maggie W. who does inspection analysis at the walk ring for most races at NYRA’s comment on Texas Red was, ” He has gained more muscle since his last race, this is the horse I would consider betting to beat American Pharoah!”  Here comment on American Pharoah were that he is a “Rock STAR and even looks better than when he posted for the Belmont!”.  And yet, both of these – simply beautiful, well turned out horses , ran beneath their expected best!

Keen Ice on the other hand has been slowly – but surely coming to hand, and today was his day!

The King will live to win another day —

Scroll down for Race #13 from Saratoga

Saturday’s Race Card from Saratoga…

From race #6 thru Race #11  we have 6 consecutive GRADE 1 races.  They are all interesting handicapping events and they are all races that get into your soul.  One example of that, as it effects me, I always look forward to the Personal Ensign, it gives me an opportunity to wax nostalgic, as I recall the career of the filly I consider to be the BEST I HAVE EVER SEEN!  ANd in particular, to recall her amazing win over Kentucky Derby winner, Winning Colors, in the BC Distaff, closing relentlessly on a sloppy track that I thought favored front speed – on that day.  I believe she remains the only horse to have an undefeated career who raced exclusively in Grade 1 company!

Even the great American Pharoah will not be able to say that if he wins the Travers and everything else he tries in the future.  Neither could Zenyata or Seattle Slew or Affirmed or Secretariat.  But this amazing filly with 13 screws in her leg DID!

Tomorrow we see basically a two horse race – at least to this handicapper – int he Travers.  The great American Pharoah and Texas Red who should be coming into the Travers loaded to the maximum.  What we will need to find out is what is Texas Red’s best effort, which no doubt he will need to beat American Pharoah.  While on the other hand, American Pharoah is showing more early speed since running in the Triple Crown, this is unusual to say the least.  For a Triple Crown combantant to be increasing his early speed at this time of the season is “way unusual” , at this stage of the season they are usually a little worn out and getting more relaxed – more willing to rate.  But the American Pharoah is showing more brilliance.   Normally, I would think this is a wonderful sign, but in truth, for this type of horse, we really do not know what this explosion of brilliance really means…

I am pretty certain, my play will be a win wager on Texas Red and a strong exacta with American Pharoah – back and forth…   I don’t think we need to look beyond these two for the win and place…

Because we are limited to only 12 races on the Power Page, I am publishing race #13 here on our web-site… Good luck to all —

Race #13 at Saratoga

ODE TO THE HU ( ) 73.3
TOM’S VISION ( ) 72.8
MEMORIES OF P ( ) 72.5
ZIGGY THE GRE ( ) 72.0
HARBOR KING (m) 71.5
FOXHALL DRIVE ( ) 71.0
OKLAHOMA DEN ( ) 70.5
ALL IS NUMBER ( ) 69.5
SNAKE OIL CHA ( ) 69.5
TIGER D ( ) 69.0
JAX HERITAGE ( ) 68.0
MISTER DOOLEY ( ) 67.0