Friday’s (12-26-2014) Power Page and KHSS for Aqueduct and Santa Anita are ready for download…

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I wanted to wish everyone a Happy and Healthy New Year in addition to a wonderful Holiday Season.  

We started in Las Vegas in 12/26/1997 at Sunset Station, and we are still going strong… 

But I also wanted to do a quick review of the Power Page  and alert you to a new feature.

First let me start by pointing out the fabulous STAR horses.  For the month of December (from 12/4 thru 12/21) there were a total of 27 STAR horses (at both Los Alamitos and Aqueduct) that returned a whopping $136.80.  If we converted that to ROI, the investment would be $54.00 (at a $2.00 wager) with a total return of $136.80 for a ROI of $2.53 per $1.00 wagered.  Show me a better “fit and ready list”.  What is obvious to long time customers is the “selectivity” of STAR horses in the modern version of the Power Page.

Star horses of note in December  —  Swiss Heart $45.20, Laura Can Disco $31.40, Liberty Island $13.40, Tama County $13.20

I am adding a NEW Feature — starting December 26th —  the VALUE horse, denoted on the Power Page but a “V” —  this denotes horses that seem to have a very long Morning Line and a “handicapper’s opinion” that the horse could get into the number 1st, 2nd,3rd, or 4th with a low probability of winning but a pretty decent chance of running 3rd or 4th.

So how does this differ from a STAR horse?   First, STAR horses conform to a “reoccurring pattern” that I see in my speed figures, which suggests a horse has a much bigger chance to “pop a big number” than other horses running similar final figures.   It’s a bit subtle, but here is how I would handle the STAER vs. the “V”.  For the most part, I would always consider a win or win/place bet on any STAR horse, while the “V” Value horse might primarily be added into my exotics as an underneath.  In the case of the STAR horse, it’s the way the speed figures line up, while with the Value horse, it’s just a handicapper’s opinion on “value Add-ins”.

Announcing a new location in Las Vegas, the Power Page can now be picked up at Sam’s Town… Additionally, I will be at Sam’s Town from Noon to about 1:30 to answer any questions on using the Power Page.  (This is NOT a seminar)

Happy and a Healthy 2015,
Jerry J

Sunday’s (12-21-2041) Power Page and KHSS for Los Alamitos are ready for download…

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There was some discussion concerning my selection on Race Day Las Vegas in the 1st on Saturday.  Anillo was the selection, she won and paid only $3.20 to win

Anillo was certainly a Short Priced UNDERLAY in the 1st at Los Alamitos….  But – with a 9/5 ML – it’s possible that the public could bet away from this proper favorite and send Anillo  e off at Even Money or even 6/5.   The actual betting got it right — betting  Anillo down to 2/5.  So the proper play was NO PLAY.  But understanding that this horse was at least a 75% win probability is at the core of understanding how to make value.   As it turns out, these types of plays are actually the most profitable IF you get EVEN money ..  Here is the math, bet this 100 times, it cost you $200.00 — win 75 times at a mutual of $4.00 produces $300.00 in total return — yielding a $100.00 profit or a $1.50 ROI….

As our ROI exercise on Race Day shows, it’s pretty hard to find a ROI of $1.50…

Again, identifying a 75% probability horse is part A — WHICH I DID.  Part B — being patient,  checking for a true overlay price is the responsibility of the listener.

Nonetheless, it’s always a good idea to set an acceptable Overlay price on high probability favorites, they do occur more often than most people think,

Remember, there is a “anti-favorite bias” in horse racing, which explains why the favorite only loses 10 cents on every dollar and not the full 15 cents….

Jerry