A little rehash of today’s Cigar Mile seems fitting.   Firstly, the obvious key was not my Top RATED STAR horse, Verrazano, even though I did pick it on Race Day Las Vegas.  It was my 2nd rated horse, Private Zone who sported the “1” for extreme early speed advantage.  The reason – the 32/1 price!

At some point, the overlay in the odds price is more important than anyone’s opinion on the outcome.   In this case, it was plain OBVIOUS!…  AS for Flat Out he ran better than I had expected, but not out of the field of possible outcomes.  Flat Out is an example of a “back classer” or as I would say, a horse with “back power”.  In the hands of a terrific trainer, they can pop big races, was the 7/1 price enough… maybe yes maybe no, that was a horse I didn’t have a good feel for.

As for Verrazano, he ran okay, but not with a great liveliness…  I understand he is retiring, which makes some sense, however, I would very much like to see him run once on the GRASS…

Cleary Now was nearly dropped at the 1/4 pole.  The effect of that serious stumble or clipped heels, took a major effect on his ability to finish…  I hope he is not hurt…

Groupie Doll is not the wonderful filly this year that she was last year… The 5/1 price tell everyone that the public suspects what I was saying about this once amazing filly…I hope she gets to go to the breeding shed…

The cards for Saturday are fantastic, especially Aqueduct with the Demoiselle, The Remsen and The Cigar Mile.  Here are a couple of questions we can start to consider – both for Saturday’s cards and for the future!   Are the two year olds that race in the Remsen too wound up, too early to perform well in the upcoming 3 year old season?

For the past several years I have continually liked one of the combatants in The Remsen and been disappointed sometime in the spring.

Another betting idea, should we bet against horses who ran well in the Breeders’ cup races in the first week of November, but be will to consider a wager on the ones that ran poorly?

I wonder out loud, if the horses who ran big at Santa Anita might be a little topped out or  maybe there is a “horse for course” inversion that will surface.  It’s perfectly plausible for a horse to run great at Santa Anita and only so-so at Aqueduct, and the opposite is also true and maybe more likely.  The horses who didn’t take well to the Santa Anita surface were getting hit with some terrible “kick-back” and often refused to extend themselves.  

The questions – at least at this moment – are important to ask…