We are back on the Turf at Aqueduct, this is always exciting and upgrades the card significantly.  Tomorrow’s card has two 6 furlong Sprints, which is my favorite distance for Turf Sprints.

ON Saturday, all purchases will get a complementary for the Big Three… The Bluegrass, The Santa Anita Derby and The Wood Memorial.

I believe the two Derby’s of greatest importance are The Bluegrass and the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood seems to be lagging behind again in talent, I wonder why…

On the Road to the Kentucky Derby:

I have completed making a number for Mendelssohn’s explosive effort in the Dubai.  I settled on a 78.0 taking into account the “about distances” which are really nothing more than a conversion form Meters to Yards… But I also take into account other important factors…  Just remember this, the number assigned to Mendlessohn is not independent of the numbers assigned to Thunder Snow, West Coast and Mubtaahij…

Speaking of Thunder Snow, he ran a 76.0 in winning the same race that Mendelssohn won last week, so it’s pretty clear that Mendelssohn is a better horse – at least at this juncture – but so is the whole class!  I have heard comments that Mendelssohn ran a faster race than any other 2-year old this year… but I DO NOT AGREE!  But the important thing to remember, it’s not how fast they ran last week, it’s how fast they will run on May 5th.  We are in the forecasting business, not in the identifying the past business as a ‘static’ idea.  We need to use the information from the past as a way to forecast going forward…

Clearly, Mendelssohn is very good and a great contender for this years KD, which is exactly the way I have viewed him form day #1, as evidenced that he has always been on our KD Contender’s list…. which will be up again tomorrow…

I am still running a little behind, so the full update will have to wait another day or two…

Audible moves to the TOP!

With a profoundly exciting move in the far turn, Audible stamps himself as the pride of New York and a tough and capable contender,  for this years Kentucky Derby.  H now has 5 full weeks of recovery and hopefully more improvement to accomplish – if he is going to “be in the money or win” this years KD.  The talent level is just so amazing this year.  And we can’t forget the lovely run by the lightly race Hofburg and the very good race by Mississippi in finishing 2nd and 3rd.  Mississippi might not be a 1 1/4 mile horse, he did get too much of the early part of the race from the bad outside post, so it’s not definitive.  Hofburg has the size and scope and look of a horse who will run “all day long”.  For his first try against really good horses, his effort was profoundly excellent!  And then Mendelssohn in the desert, please read on…

Mendelssohn romps in the desert!

AT this point, I have not completed making a number for Mendelssohn.  Of course, the visual was spectacular… and as Ralph and I discussed on the radio this morning, we didn’t understand why he was getting hit with crosses with a 15 or 20 length lead.   I guess, the jock was under instructions to push him to his max or else the jock is a complete and utter jack!$%! So far, in every race I have seen of this horse, is he has no quit in him, so I don’t see the need to urge him.

My guess on him, is he will be as good looking as everyone else.  He will have the in-enviable job of overcoming the shipping question as well as taking on ground loss and kick back, unless he plans to go wire to wire in the KD… and I just don’t think that’s possible this year.

I will make a big effort to get the Meydan card rated today and have some more info on Thursday night’s posting… still a little tired for the long flight on Tuesday…

My Gaming Today article for next week ( #6 ) will be Audible (2nd time for him), Hofburg and of course Mendelssohn – and yes I will be making speed figures or today’s races at Meydan — and yes, we will call them “approximate” as the data is very limited.  But I would be happy to bet, my approximate numbers are still better than everyone elses – but that’s me talking about me!

I will complete updates tomorrow…