I am starting to book my annual Kentucky Derby Seminars.  I will be at Texas Station on Friday Night at 6:15 on May 5th and at Fiesta, on Thursday afternoon at 1:00 PM on May 4th…  Try and join me if you can…

Kentucky Derby Info…  Before we get going on this years KD, we should get a handle on some recent history.  It’s important, because this is a giant ask, and we have to understand who and how they are going to arrive in Kentucky for this season’s Kentucky Derby. So let’s look back first…

Previous Winners           Raw Clocking, Mile and Final             JerryJ’s Figure

2014 California Chrome           (97.45,    203.60)                                 74.3

2015 American Pharoah           (96.45,   203.02)                                 76.5

2016 Nyquist                               (95.61,    201.31)                                  79.0

Interestingly and not surprising Nyquist had the fastest clocking and also earned the highest JerryJ figure – a 79.0.  It’s also worth noting that Nyquist also ran faster in the final quarter, both in actual time and in relative time.  What do I mean by relative time?  Considering that Nyquist ran faster through the opening 8 furlongs, so it would be reasonable to allow him to come the final quarter a little slower.  Nyquist ran the final 1/4 in 25.70, while American Pharoah ran his final 1/4 in 26.57 and California Chrome 26.21 (CC was a little faster in the stretch than AP, but that would be expected because his split were a little slower).  But American Pharoah, seemed to run faster – RELATIVELY- than California Chrome, because he expended more energy through the opening mile.  So while he ran slightly slower in ACTUAL closing quarter, he ran equal to CC or even faster.   By the way, the variant for these 3 different KD, were very similar according to my protocols for assigning variants. And it’s a pretty solid day for making variants, because we have much more data to work with due to 12 race cards and the huge fields and the higher quality horses.  But kudos to Butch, he’s a fabulous track super!

One last comment on the slowish clocking and JerryJ fig of CC, it’s just one race and he always ran down to his competition, if they had run faster, surely he would have run faster and to my eye, he had pulled himself up for the last 100 yards — At Least.  To me these are all superior racehorses, with American Pharoah going on to be a GREAT racehorse.  Also, they all ran similar ground loss, because they all went on an outside trip.

One more comment on the quality of Nyquist.  To my knowledge he ran the fastest 1st quarter of any horse who ended up winning the Kentucky Derby, with the possible exception of Seattle Slew, whose actual clocking was slower than Nyquist, but he had to make up 3-4 lengths after breaking slowly and getting in behind some slower horses. Nyquist’s Kentucky Derby was sensational…

Here are my current numbers for a series of KD Contenders, as if they were going to run a 1 1/16 tomorrow…

McCraken            78.5 *

El Areeb                76.3*

Tapwrit                  77.8

One Liner               77.3

Classic Empire     76.5

Royal Mo               75.8

Girvin                     75.5

Irish War Cry       73.5

Notice in this listing, I have rated on McCraken and El Areeb as STAR horses and put them to the top of this list…  Also note, Classic Empire ran a 77.8 as a 2 year old and is the only horse with a rating below his best 2 year old effort.  We will have to see how he comes back from his abscess injury.

Daily Bias Report…

Aqueduct …(3-2-2017)   No play at Aqueduct today.!

Santa Anita (3-2-2017) slight edge to inside and early speed types… as FAST and played HONEST.

Race Day Las Vegas Section

(Correction added, I forgot to write up Shareholder Value… now updated)

Thursday  3-2-2017

Santa Anita  Race #5  City Storm off at 10/1, broke alertly then took hold to rate along just off the lead, moved to the lead as they hit the dirt crossing, opened daylight with 3/16th, then got wobbly late, but responded to the whip to win well…seemingly inexperienced.  Made the exacta… WINNER paid $23.40.

Santa Anita  Race #7  Calculator off at 1/2… note there were two late scratches one of the scratches at the gate that drove the price down to 1/2… broke in concert but without any early speed, fell into a chasing position back a few lengths, kept pace quite easily, moved up 1 off the rail then when the leader fanned wide, dove through on the rail, battled along and then won well, with some urging…WINNER paid $3.20… No exacta.

ROI for Race Day Plays for New York and So. Cal Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/2/17)

NY — Total Return  $0.00, Total Cost  $ 6.00,  ROI Total  $0.00

SA — Total Return  $33.40, Total Cost  $ 10.00,  ROI Total  $3.34/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 137.60
Total  Cost          $ 126.00

(Updated to include Shareholder Value at Fair Grounds)…

ROI $1.09 per $1.00 played…(thru 3/2/2017)

All ROI totals are to a $1.00 base play.
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Girvin romps in the Risen Star…

The Risen Star was run today and we have another 2 number horse running a big effort and winning, in Girvin.  Girvin posted a 75.5 which is a decent number, one that would be expected from a Kentucky Derby contenter.  It’s worth noting, that my “paradigm of form for the KD” would be to post a 76.0 at two turns in January and have carried at least 122 lbs at distance.  So Girvin  is a touch light on Speed Figs and very light on weight carried.  But so is One Liner and irish War Cry is literally substandard and One Liner also has not demonstrated any ability to carry weight.  Remember, the KD is all about carrying weight, as the colts will have to carry 126lbs a full 1 1/4 mile.

In horse racing, everything is possible, but many things are UNLIKELY.  It’s UNLIKELY that Irish War Cry can mature fast enough to win the KD, considering he has not run within 8 lengths of any existing Kentucky Derby winner at an equal time of year, with only so much time left to develop. Keep this in mind, this is according to MY SPEED FIGURES.

One last reminder, Risen Star, who was miles the best of his 3 year old generation and easily the best horse from the great Secretariat, was immature coming into his edition of the KD and was beaten by Winning Colors and Forty Niner.  While everyone saw Risen Star gobbling up ground in the stretch, it was well understood that he was just a race short, or he would have defeated them in the KD.  He did go on to defeat them in the Preakness and The Belmot – EASILY!

before Wednesday, I will produce an official number for Girvin and see where if fits with the others…

I will be back latert to update this post…

Daily Bias Report…

Aqueduct …(2-24-2017)   Rail played SLOW!

Santa Anita (2-24-2017) Played HONEST

Aqueduct …(2-25-2017)   Track played HONEST, with some late FOG making the visual interesting.

Santa Anita (2-25-2017) Played HONEST

Aqueduct …(2-26-2017)   Track was listed as FAST and played HONEST.

Santa Anita (2-26-2017) Played HONEST

Santa Anita Turf has been playing nicely for Early Speed types this week…

Race Day Las Vegas Section

(Correction added, I forgot to write up Shareholder Value… now updated)

Friday 2-24

Aqueduct  Race #6  Can You Diggit  off at 7/2… sat well along inside, then shuffled back to far, was behind slow cover while trying to find a lane, finally got loose, but then took missed step while now in the lane, then finished well for 4th… However, his Entry  mate did actually Win, but we were denied the cashing, because the stewards decided to place Mr. Buff 2nd.  Not a good call in my opinion… we got the place – with good or bad luck depending on your view. PLACE and made the exacta.  We did beat the morning line favorites as well.

Santa Anita    Race #5   Shazara off at 9/1  Raced in the back and looked stiff, made a slight run, to get a middle finish.  This was a performance, much less than I expected…  Basically, a dull account.

Saturday 2-25-17

Aqueduct  Spanish Harlem off at 9/1… ran horribly…in the fog…

Santa Anita  Race #5  Money Spunts off at 7/2, even at the break, moved up to be close in behind the leaders within the first 100 yards, then relaxed some on the turn falling back a length or so, then commenced a rally but was not able to find a running lane until past the furlong pole, then rebroke to finish fast, easily getting the PLACE money…  hard to know, if getting some racing room earlier would have been the winning-difference maker.  The winner had a hard wide trip and raced very well for sure. Got the Placing and the EXACTA.

Fair Grounds….  Shareholder Value…  double-digits odds…  ran along, finished mid-pack…never threatened…

Sunday 2-26-17

Aqueduct Race #7 Imasuperstar off at 13/1… as mentioned on Race Day, this play was all about his moving way up on a WET track, and the track turned out to be FAST.  Yet at the double digit price of 13/1, I think it still was worth playing. After the gate was sprung, we could see he didn’t break alertly and then got parked while outrun for the lead… these two factors sealed his fate.  He battled until the turn for home before slowing down.  I would consider following this horse…  but No BUENO.

Santa Anita  Race #7  Sawyer’s Hill off at 2/1…  Was an excellent play at nearly 5/2.  SH made every pole a winning one, as he went to the lead and improved his position from there!  Winning paying $6.80 and with the EXACTA!

Returns for New York and So. Cal Plays (starting February 24,2017 thru 2/26/17)

NY — Total Return  $0.00, Total Cost  $ 6.00,  ROI Total  $0.00

SA — Total Return  $6.80, Total Cost  $ 6.00,  ROI Total  $1.13

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 111.00
Total  Cost          $ 122.00

(Updated to include Shareholder Value at Fair Grounds)…

ROI $0.91 per $1.00 played…(thru 2/26/2017)

All ROI totals are to a $1.00 base play.
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