Risen Star – Grade II.

Saturday’s headline 3 year old race is the Grade II Risen Star.  For those of you who are a little too young to know, Risen Star was the best horse ever produced by the GREAT RACEHORSE, SECRETARIAT!  His effort to win The Preakness and The Belmont were both memorable runs, of tremendous power.  His effort in the KD was very good, but he was so lightly raced, he just didn’t have the seasoning for the KD.  But he used the conditioning he got from the KD to spring-board him to two amazing runs…

Tomorrows, edition of the Risen Star, with the Favorite being Mo Town, is really a pretty wide open affair… and I will be reporting “the numbers” on Wednesday, on Race Day Las Vegas.  But I will caution that I have always found The Fair Grounds to be a track that some like and some don’t like all that much – for whatever reason.  One horse that catches my attention, is the Thomas Amoss charge, Shareholder Value, who encountered McCraken at two, probably before he was ready to face such a foe.  But with a nice win over The Fair Grounds and a muddy race in his last – to hopefully bury better form — this is a longshot that has some merit in my mind.    And I don’t mind the favorite either…  Maybe a worthwhile exacta play…

 Daily Bias Report…

Aqueduct …(2-24-2017)   Rail played SLOW!

Santa Anita (2-24-2017) Played HONEST

Santa Anita (2-18 –> 2-20 ) Played to Inside and Early Speed to varying degrees, with Saturday’s races had a strong INSIDE SPEED bias.

Race Day Las Vegas Section

Friday 2-24

Aqueduct  Race #6  Can You Diggit  off at 7/2… sat well along inside, then shuffled back to far, was behind slow cover while trying to find a lane, finally got loose, but then took missed step while now in the lane, then finishe well for 4th… However, his Entry  mate did actually Win, but we were denied the cashing, because the stewards decided to place Mr. Buff 2nd.  Not a good call in my opinion… we got the place – with good or bad luck depending on your view. PLACE and made the exacta.  We did beat the morning line favorites as well.

Santa Anita    Race #5   Shazara off at 9/1  Raced in the back and looked stiff, made a slight run, to get a middle finish.  This was a performance, much less than I expected…  Basically, a dull account.

Returns for New York and So. Cal Plays (starting February 26,2017)

NY — Total Return  $~~.00 , Total Cost  $ 2.00,  ROI Total  $~~.00

SA — Total Return  $~~.00 , Total Cost  $ 2.00,  ROI Total  $~~.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return     $ 104.20
Total  Cost          $ 112.00

ROI $0.93 per $1.00 played…(thru 2/24/2017)

All ROI totals are to a $1.00 base play.
———————————————————————————————-
2016 – Totals with FINAL returns on all plays = 469 plays

Total Return     $979.80
Total  Cost          $ 938.00  (updated to include all plays from 12/11 thru 12/31)

ROI 1.04 per $1.00 played…

Gun Runner pops an 81.3 at Oaklawn in the Razorback, while One Liner runs a 77.8 in the Southwest.  Gun Runner early on looked like possible champion or at least a very good Grade 1 type horse.  After dueling with Nyquist in their grueling edition of the Kentucky Derby, he never really panned out with anything better than a Grade II type race.   He also seemed to have difficulty holding his class as he stretched out beyond 1 1/6th… at least to my eye!

In the fall he finally put together a borderline Grade 1 effort, in the Clark at Churchill Downs turning in a performance of 79.5  and now has come back to show real improvement at Oaklawn Park, this past Monday — hitting very classy 81.3. Now the question is, can he continue to improve.

(As a point of comparison, Arrogate is running 83.8 already)

One Liner has now run into contention for the KD with a 77.8, in his 3rd lifetime effort and first time out at 2 turns.  He seems to definitely relish a little more distance — no on should find that surprising… However, we have seen form like this from from a Pletcher 3 year olds, and it’s seldom – if EVER – that the horses develop much beyond this HUGE TOPPING EFFORT.  It’s almost as if he gets started very late with them and then rushes their development and it’s too much too soon.  But of course, I am just evaluating from a distance… The real important point is it’s SPRINT, SPRINT , then Route , with the first route coming in February.  On the other hand, this colt did actually start last summer at Saratoga, which might be a good thing, indicating that he has been doing more early in his career the sudden elevation of his efforts might be easier for him to build off of… You get what I am saying…

Back later with Bias and Handicapping updates…

 Daily Bias Report…

Aqueduct …(2-16 thru 2-20-2017)   Played Honest

Santa Anita (2-16) Played HONEST

Santa Anita (2-18 –> 2-20 ) Played to Inside and Early Speed to varying degrees, with Saturday’s races had a strong INSIDE SPEED bias.

Race Day Las Vegas Section (through Sunday 1-29-2017)

Thursday (2-16-2017)
Aqueduct –  True History …. No bueno

Santa Anita – Ponder Lea   off at 4/1…. ran along well, while wide throughout, rallied to be much the 2nd best… made the exacta… PLACED

Friday 2-17

Aqueduct  Race #5  Unrepenting off at 7/2… sat well, looked to be moving nicely, when suddenly backed up, poor effort on the ship in from Parx.

Aqueduct Race #9 Nut Nut off at 8/1 broke well but took back, after slight bumping at the start, ran along evenly without every threatening…

Santa Anita  …cancelled racing due to weather…

Saturday 2-18

Aqueduct  Tapa Liath off at 7/2… well placed, but slightly wide, could not make an effective rally,

Santa Anita  Race #5 Cheekaboomboom  off at 4/1… took to the overland route, while laying just a couple of lengths off the pace setters. Commenced a rally on the far turn to get closer and closer, but had trouble sustaining the rally, while remaining wide throughout.  Finished 3rd in what I consider an AGAINST THE BIAS effort.

Sunday 2-19

Aqueduct Race #5 Mr. Palmer off at 9/2  took hold to remain with the back markers, moved up nicely and engaged the leaders by the 3/16ths pole, finishing with a flurry, Mr. Palmer made Jack take notice today, while winning well …paying $11.80…also cashing the exacta!

Returns for New York and So. Cal Plays (starting February 26,2017

NY — Total Return  $~~.00 , Total Cost  $~~.00,  ROI Total  $~~.00

SA — Total Return  $~~.00 , Total Cost  $~~.00,  ROI Total  $~~.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return     $ 104.20
Total  Cost          $ 108.00

ROI $0.96 per $1.00 played…(thru 2/05/2017)

All ROI totals are to a $1.00 base play.
———————————————————————————————-
2016 – Totals with FINAL returns on all plays = 469 plays

Total Return     $979.80
Total  Cost          $ 938.00  (updated to include all plays from 12/11 thru 12/31)

ROI 1.04 per $1.00 played…