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August 20, 2010

Another great day on Sunday 8/19 at Del Mar  featuring Holding Her Ground on top at $22.20 to win…But also consider this, AlleyHondro,Sheesjey, Emmy Darlingand Not In This Life were all  2nd rated — simply betting 2x2x2x2x2x2 would have gotten you a winning PICK 5- which was pretty good consider it paid to 4.  That means you would have gotten the entire consolation pool…Let’s add this in, Ralphie’ OLE’ was 70/1 but in the 7th position  in the 5th race, but ONLY 2.5 points off the TOP Rated Tuba Man (who ran 2nd) … I’ve discussed this many times, that races with many horses withing 2.5 points, yields more longshots.   In this case, Ralphi’ Ole’ was certainly playable on any exacta box strategy – simply as a long shot inclusion in the spread!  Horse racing isn’t a game of perfect certitude, but rather a see-saw battle between high probability horses and random events.  Ralphie’ Ole’ was somewhere inbetween but at 70/1 was clearly useable in some fashion!

Sunday(8/15),  Top-rated horses won 5 from 9races at Del Mar.  In 2 cases that were won by horses not rated on TOP, those races were won by our STAR horses.  In race 6 Royal  J won and in race #8 Wasted Tears won.   Beyond that if you used our STAR horse as 1st call in each race and the T-R as the 2nd call in each race,   a simple 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2x won the PICK-6… That’s information that is really powerful and helps get you closer to the winners before you start your handicapping!

What is the difference between the Power Page and the Key Horse Selection Sheet?

 This frequently asked question goes to the heart of the handicapping/selection discussion. The Power Page is a detailed study of the recent form of a horse, in speed figures. I call that number the PPN –Projected Power Number — it is designed to be transferred to your racing newspaper and then MODIFIED BY YOU according to your own handicapping, taking into account the trainer, the post position, how the horse looks to you in form and in flesh and all the other handicapping ideas that you believe should be brought into the equation. It’s my opinion that the relative strenght of the PPN’s is the greatest predictor of the outcome of a race and when modified by an astute handicapper they can improve the handicapping result. By themselves the PPN’s order up races about as well as any handicapping material or selection sheet in publication… Note I do additional work on the Power Page with my STAR horses – which have over the course of 12 years proven to be a POSITIVE expectation of about 2%, which is the best handicapping information on the market today.

So how is the KEY HORSE SELECTION SHEET different from the Power Page. Simple, the KHSS starts with the PPN from the Power Page (and te STARS) and then looks at all the other handicapping information that the Power Page DOESN’T LOOK AT, adds those values into the PPN and comes up with the APN –ACCUMULATED POWER NUMBER. The horse with the highest PPN gets a value of 10.0, the horse with the next highest PPN gets a value of 10.0 minus the (difference in their PPN’s ). So for an example if thie highest rated horse had a 70.0 on the Power Page, he would get a 10.0 — then if the next best PPN was a 69.5, then he would get a 9.5, then after that they would get additional values for all the other handicapping factors, starting with Post Position, Trainer , workouts, back power, STAR, early speed and anything else you can think of. Remember, some of these factors might increase the APN and some might decrease the APN so a horse can have a number well above 10.0 or the highest rated horse on the Power Page can have a number below the 10.0 he would have started with. The important fact is this, that with the KHSS, you should be able to use this product as a selection sheet and just look at the 4 horses, look at the tote board and look at anything else you like to look at and make a bet accordingly…

Resulting yesterday — Minnie Punt got tackled behind the line of scrimmage…ON TO THE NEXT..

Friday’s Free Play….Del Mar — Race #6 …  Horse racing is never a neat and easy, it’s rather messy and frustrating and uncertain, and played that way it’s at it’s best.  Here is a good example, in the 6th at Del mar we have Sea Viper at 12/1 and Salah Salah at 9/2, so Sea Viper with it’s higher rating on the Power Page is the clear play.  What about our T-R horse Looking for Candy, off a layoff at 5/2 it’s clearly less appealing!  My play will be to try and score a win/place wager on Sea Viper and then play exacta boxes with Looking for Candy, Salah Salah dn even Nigth Justice AND ADD IN THE 1sty Syllabus.   But for you Pick 6 players, I would think you would want all 5 in the play…Good Luck