The “P” horses ruled at Santa Anita… The “P” designation indicates , my belief, that a horse has a decent chance to improve – distinctly because of a WET Track. It’s the type of thing that we need as handicapper’s, because these horses automatically have BURIED FORM. I say “BURIED FORM” because as yet, no one has witnessed the IMPROVED FORM. It is in fact only a potential and it’s totally theoretical. And for it to mean anything, this has to be really good data!
At Santa Anita we had a MUDDY/Sealed track, which is a perfect place to look for, evaluated and make plays on horses that might improve their form when they hit this type of track. So here is what happened, the dirt races were races #1,#2, #4, #5, #7 & #8, Races #3 & #6 were “off-the-turf events for turf horses… So in these races, there were ONLY 2 horses assigned a “P”, Diamondinthecenter in the 5th and Derby Music in the 8th. And you guessed it, they both won, with Diamondinthecenter paying $12.00 and Derby Music paying $13.60.
Let me rephrase it…there were 44 horses slated to run on the Main Dirt track (excluding the OFF-THE-TURF races #3 )— just two got the “P” for Potential to Improve in Wet Conditions… and those 2 horses both won! These were distinctly marked and should have stood out for everyone to consider and combined with other attribute, should have made the upper echelon of everyone’s Contenders List… and as many of you know, Derby Music was also the highest rated PPN in his heat, so at nearly 6/1, this was a very good bet…
Daily Bias Report…
Aqueduct …(1-5-2016)… Tracked played Honestly through the early races but started to become “unstable” toward the end of the day…
Santa Anita …(1-6-2017) …Played pretty honestly…
Race Day Las Vegas Section (no plays for Thursday 1/5/17)
Aqueduct… Race #4 Ransom Note… Won .. winning paying $5.50
Santa Anita… Race #5 Poshsky… off at 5/1, Rated along, moved up on the far turn to be a clear 4th,
Aqueduct… Race #3 Promise Me Tiz off at 5/2… Broke in stride by slowish, started to get goign buyt tried to lug in around the turn and into the stretch, and never settled in a very lackluster performance.
Aqueduct… Race #9 Spectorlite off at 8/5… Broke quickly and made the lead while cutting fast fractions, was headed by the eventual winner mid turn and was not able to keep pace, and tired late to salvage 3rd money…
Friday
Aqueduct… Race #6…Finding Candy off at 9/2… found a very good trip, but didn’t have any run to speak off… off the board in a lackluster performance…
Santa Anita… Race #5… Mannerly off at 3/5… was way over bet and I hope nobody bother to plunk down a nickel at that price,,, went off to the lead, dueled with the eventual winner but tired to 4th…ugh…
Santa Anita… Race #8… Derby Music off at 5.80/1… broke alertly and moved to secure running position on the inside and just a little off the leaders, moved away from the rail as they came out of the turn and moved to the middle of the track for the stretch run, and finished very well to earn the top honors… Winning paying $13.60
Total returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $19.10
Total Cost $ 14.00
ROI $1.36 per $1.00 played…(thru 1/6/2017)
Total and FINAL returns on all plays = 468 plays for 2016…
Total Return $979.80
Total Cost $ 938.00 (updated to include all plays from 12/11 thru 12/31)