We started the day with a most wonderful score at Aqueduct.  I received many nice e-mails today talking about the 2×2 cross that led to the opening DD that paid a whopping $729 for $2.00.  The additional analysis, I have offered below, for those who would like to read it explains how the 1st race looked to me in real-time.  The 2nd race was really easy though, this was a Top Rated horse that went off at 17/1.  In fact, just looking at any decent PP’s the filly looked reasonable at 4/1 – at least to my eye.

Beyond the above, at Aqueduct I had a STAR on CALDERA in the 6th — off at odds of 28/1.  Caldera ran a terrific placing to our Top Rated Seeking Alpha getting  us a terrific $131.00 exacta and a huge place price to work with…

Then over at Los Alamitos our best play – also occurred in their 6th race, when Gato Dolce off at 18/1 ran an solid placing to our Top Rated Iron Rob. This exacta paid a healthy $95/$2.00.  Truthfully, there were only two horses with races, so Top Rated is a bit of a self serving comment.  But for seasoned users of the JJPP, the 71.3 rating for this class of young horses is a very decent rating – deserving or proper consideration – especially at 5/1.

The important point I am trying to highlight in this piece is – our informational based approach to handicapping should help us all find horses with nice value propositions…

For tonight , please scroll down for today’s Race Day Plays…

Anatomy of a 15/1:

Race #1 at Aqueduct on Friday went right to the heart of
my favorite types of play. It’s not one that I fell in
love with the night before, but rather one in which the
piece all came together in real time. And if you think
about it, it suggests why I would make the Power Page.

First we have a well defined Favorite in Momentary
Magic, but MM does have some naturaly flaws to her form.
MM has a drop down aspect, and she is very lightly races
for 5 year old mare, so we have to be a little suspect
of her. No way I would recommend betting her as the
favorite or even 2nd choice, even with the big speed
figure. Remember, she is 8/5 on the M/L, so one would
expect her to be 4/5 in the Early betting. Well she is
not, in fact she is 3/1 through most of the betting and
only at the very end is she bet down. This favorite
clearly had “BO on hte Board”.

Our 2nd rated horse was ignored on the board, but that’s
fine with an 8/1, where the public is scrambling to find
the right short money horse. Sing For Beauty was well
rated on the Power Page, 2nd best to the bad favorite
MM. Once we feel that MM is a possible bad favorite, we
have nearly nothing else to consider as a bet in the
first, wiht Sing for Beauty a clear overlay. This one
worked out very well…

Race Day Play’s for Friday:

Aqueduct : Race #7 — Captain Moss — ran well but attended the pace 4 wide and then tired.  By the time we got to the 7th race, we could all see the track bias was favoring the Inside Speed in a major way. I might bet this one back.

Los Alamitos:  Race #4 — Selection — Selection was the selection — ran very evenly for 3rd.

Los Alamitos:  Race #8 — Winninginfashion — also raced evenly, finishing mid-pack…