Talking the Arkansas Derby
The Arkansas Derby is especially interesting to me — this year, it’s clearly a race that is featuring several improving horses, including Whitmore, Dazzling Gem, Cupid, Creator and some other really nice colts… I am liking Dazzling Gem a little at the 12/ M/L, here is an example of a STAKES caliber colt going into his 4ht race lifetime, with all the races occurring in this calendar year… Brad Cox is a terrific trainer – so it’s easy to look to the upside here. Dazzling hasn’t run the dazzling race needed to win this edition yet, but I am expecting a really nice race tomorrow… One additional caveat, he shipped down to Fairground and now is back at home, I have noticed over the years, it’s good to bet on horses that ship into Fairground, run even or a little below their par and then ship back to their home track… I am also very strong on Whitmore, he just looks like the type of horse that will move forward one more time, while I am not in love with Cupid, who ran his big race in his last — that was his 4th race lifetime. So like Danzing Candy in last weeks Santa Anita Derby, Cupid is a little more likely to respond to his big effort in his last with a off race today… That’s horse racing…
Aqueduct another very nice card on Saturday with some nice looking POK’s… Los Alamitos’ card is a bit thin – maybe a little tougher to grind on – but there is always a good play or two –>
Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Resulting the “Featured Play” will be back after the weekend…
3 year olds that rate ! Danzing Candy gets demoted…Exaggerator gets back on the list…Destin and Outwork are new and moving… Gun Runner too…
- Nyquist — Will go into KD with only 2 races as a 3 year old! (Won the Big battle in Florida Nyquist — knocked out Mohaymen)
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance) SHE is really co-top rated…
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, San Felipe and SA Derby set him up for a big race in the KD… FAST or Tight track only!
- Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby,flattered by Outwork, excellent prospect…
- Exaggerator –reappears on this list, with a caveat — only in the slop or muddy… IF the track is MUDDY – he becomes #2.
- Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem- let’s see what he has learned!
- Outwork — now a listed contender, has true brilliance and some staying power, problem is Pletcher is not good at KD…
- Whitmore – another lightly raced colt who is showing some forward strides, this weekend should be telling.
- Gun Runner — all nice races, but must move forward and should move forward, but he has some distance in form to go.
- Danzing Candy — overused on the front end in the SA Derby, but still brilliant early – might have a recovery race in him…
- Moyhamen ( downgraded further off disappointment in Florida Deryb…)
Mor Spirit has been moved down to 3rd, he is simply no match for Songbird, in my opinion… I think he is ready for a big KD, but only on a FAST surface…
Track Bias Report for Friday:
Aqueduct: Yesterday was honest, today was a 5 STAR inside and Speed favoring day…
Los Alamitos : HONEST, with an edge to closers…
Race Day Plays for Friday:
Aqueduct : Race #7… Valkimqua … off at 5/1… Attended the pace while 3 wide, stayed close to the top of the lane and then retreated — while clearly running against the bias, I am not thinking this one needs to be followed… out of the money.
Los Alamitos : Race #2… Atascaderan… off at 4/1 …Broke well to attend the pace on the crown of the track, moved up to contend on the turn, came into the lane with a nice lead and continued well to win.. paying $10.20 -no exacta…
ROI – .99 Total Plays = 127, —- wins = 27, —– place = 23, —– Total exacta 31/127
Total return $251.90
Total Cost $254.00
Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:
Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…
At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)
At Texas Station at 6:15PM … This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page… we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…
For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse. It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million. To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away! He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…
So – this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch. And in the spirit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.