Creator wins the Arkansas Derby
The Arkansas Derby played out somewhat along the lines that I anticipated. Cupid, as happens with Stakes horses that pack too much racing into too short a schedule, ran poorly in his 5th lifetime start. Just as Danzing Candy did – but Danzing Candy has an extra week to recover and move forward. Whitmore was able to reverse on Cupid, he ran okay, but not great, getting 3rd. Dazzling Gem ran forwardly, getting 4th, but not good enough and still clearly a notch below this group. Creator and Suddenbreakinews both finished in full stride — looking real good to my eye. I will process the races later tonight and report the quality of this field…
Aqueduct another very nice card on Saturday with some nice looking POK’s… Los Alamitos’ card is a bit thin – maybe a little tougher to grind on – but there is always a good play or two –>
Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Resulting the “Featured Play” will be back after the weekend…
3 year olds that rate !
Whitmore and Cupid gets demoted…Creator takes a strong position as does Suddenbreakinews on upswing!
- Nyquist — Will go into KD with only 2 races as a 3 year old! (Won the Big battle in Florida Nyquist — knocked out Mohaymen)
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance) SHE is really co-top rated…
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, San Felipe and SA Derby set him up for a big race in the KD… FAST or Tight track only!
- Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby,flattered by Outwork, excellent prospect…
- Exaggerator –reappears on this list, with a caveat — only in the slop or muddy… IF the track is MUDDY – he becomes #2.
- Creator – starting to look nice, developing at the right time…
- Suddenbrekinews – same as Creator, developing at the right time…
- Gun Runner — all nice races, but must move forward and should move forward, but he has some distance in form to go.
- Danzing Candy — overused on the front end in the SA Derby, but still brilliant early – might have a recovery race in him…
- Outwork — now a listed contender, has true brilliance and some staying power, problem is Pletcher is not good at KD..
- Whitmore – another lightly raced colt who is showing some forward strides, this weekend should be telling.
- Moyhamen ( downgraded further off disappointment in Florida Deryb…)
- Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem- let’s see what he has learned!
Mor Spirit has been moved down to 3rd, he is simply no match for Songbird, in my opinion… I think he is ready for a big KD, but only on a FAST surface…
Track Bias Report for Saturday:
Aqueduct: Inside favoring, early speed types did okay… advantage inside..
Los Alamitos : OUtside horses defeated inside horses all day long… NEGATIVE INSIDE!
Race Day Plays for SAturday:
Aqueduct : Race #8n.. Uncharted Course… off at 7/2… broke well, wrestled the lead along the inside, held sway through the turn and into the stretch, we headed inside the 1/8th pole, held the PLACE – Cashed the exacta…
Los Alamitos : Race #4… Miss Big Stuff… off at 3/1 …Broke on top, held the lead for about 3 furlongs, then stopped…off the board.
ROI – .98 Total Plays = 129, —- wins = 27, —– place = 24, —– Total exacta 31/129
Total return $251.90
Total Cost $258.00
Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:
Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…
At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)
At Texas Station at 6:15PM … This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page… we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…
For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse. It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million. To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away! He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…
So – this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch. And in the spirit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.