The really big news today is the excellent effort of Flameaway in beating both the very good Catholic Boy and the improving Vino Rosso. Interestingly, Flameaway really handled the surface at Tampa Bay Downs but in a previous effort on the dirt, simply did not handle that surface at Churchill Downs. There is some belief that form transfers well between Churchill Downs and Tampa Bay Downs, so this becomes a “brain squeezer”! I am guessing they three ran terrific numbers, so tune back in and by Wednesday I will be reporting these three. I just want to make a special notation, I thought Vino Rosso was visually impressive, in closing in on the Flameaway and Catholic boy in the late stages.
One more comment, both Catholic Boy and Flameaway showed they are real Grade 1 prospects, by way of their 2 year old Turf effort at Del Mar in the Breeders Cup, but also by some other very solid races…
Now on to an even bigger story! At least to me (and you) Bob Baffert just went down for the 3rd time in 3 days with very fast horses that simply had no POP! The first was a cheaper version in Divine Spark on Thursday, who was as dull as dishwater at 5/1. But then on Friday, there was a very fast Emboldened who dominated in her only race, while never being under pressure, we are completely conditioned to see these horses move forward in the their 2nd effort. NOT to happen. Emboldened ran what appeared to be a “DULL” race. This was a terrible disappointment to those who took ODDS ON money. Of course, I never take ODDS on – and that should have saved you as well.
Now on to Ax Man. Who I indicated had literally giant speed figs in his first race – compared to everyone else. I rated him on the Power Page at 76.5, which was exactly his number in his only previous effort. But today, he simply ran to hot fractions for about 4 furlongs and his action became stressed and was out-gamed by several horses that had never ran past a 72.0. For a horse this good to run this poorly, we would never expect that from a Bob Baffert, but from an average trainer. But this is the 3rd poor effort in 3 days, 2 of which were at ODDS – ON!
Okay… Sunday’s cards are here and Santa Anita is another good card… New York is a little thin.
And come back later in the week to see updates on my Kentucky Derby List… maybe I will add in Ralph’s favored future book horse…
Kentucky Derby Contenders…
|Audible||78.3 <- 3 yr|
|McKinzie||77.5 <- 3 yr|
|Bolt D’Oro||2 yr -> 79.8|
|Good Magic||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Solomini||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Instilled Regard||73.5 <- 3 yr|
|Mourinho||75.5 <- 3 yr|
|Mask||74.8 <- 3 yr|
|Mendelssohn||2 yr -> 75.5|
|Free Drop Billy||76.5 <- 3 yr|
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
At Aqueduct, in Race #7, Decorator Jenn off at 6/1, ran alertly and in contention just 1 1/2 lengths off the lead for about 4 furlongs, and then tired badly. She may need a little vacay…
At Santa Anita, in Race #4, Divine Spark off at 9/2 was simply ghastly. After breaking a little slow, she kept going slow, and then finished with a slight bit of interest to manage 5th or 6th… I mean who cares… was this really a Bob Baffert horse? Disappointing doesn’t express my take on this race!
At Aqueduct, we played Chilly Bon Bon in the 7th, off about 2/1 was fair, went right to the lead and took some moderate pressure from the eventual winner, held position on the rail until they turned for home when he tired…
At Santa Anita, in the 3rd, we tabbed Southern Treasure off at 5/1. ST went for the lead a battle throughout, was overtaken for the lead late in the turn, but continued with determination, to eventual prevail and pull clear for a tremendous victory. The winning price was a solid $13.40.
At Aqueduct, I tabbed Lost Iron, in the 2nd off at 5/2. This was a very good price with the chalk highly overbet (and vulnerable in my opinion). Lost Iron broke very alertly to take up the 2nd position and hold it through the early running, then moved up on the front runner and took over as they spun out of the turn, ran through the lane very well, but could not hold off the late charge of the winner. I thought the race was solid, as we held the place and won the exacta while defeating the ODDS ON Horse.
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
Saturday — Feb 10th — will be updated tomorrow…
NY Total Return $35.00, Total Cost $ 34.00 ROI Total $1.03/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $29.00, Total Cost $ 16.00 ROI Total $1.81/$1.00
SC Total Return $46.60, Total Cost $ 44.00, ROI Total $1.06 .79/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 104.80
Total Cost $ 92.00
ROI $ 1.14 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 2/9/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)