Girvin romps in the Risen Star…
The Risen Star was run today and we have another 2 number horse running a big effort and winning, in Girvin. Girvin posted a 75.5 which is a decent number, one that would be expected from a Kentucky Derby contenter. It’s worth noting, that my “paradigm of form for the KD” would be to post a 76.0 at two turns in January and have carried at least 122 lbs at distance. So Girvin is a touch light on Speed Figs and very light on weight carried. But so is One Liner and irish War Cry is literally substandard and One Liner also has not demonstrated any ability to carry weight. Remember, the KD is all about carrying weight, as the colts will have to carry 126lbs a full 1 1/4 mile.
In horse racing, everything is possible, but many things are UNLIKELY. It’s UNLIKELY that Irish War Cry can mature fast enough to win the KD, considering he has not run within 8 lengths of any existing Kentucky Derby winner at an equal time of year, with only so much time left to develop. Keep this in mind, this is according to MY SPEED FIGURES.
One last reminder, Risen Star, who was miles the best of his 3 year old generation and easily the best horse from the great Secretariat, was immature coming into his edition of the KD and was beaten by Winning Colors and Forty Niner. While everyone saw Risen Star gobbling up ground in the stretch, it was well understood that he was just a race short, or he would have defeated them in the KD. He did go on to defeat them in the Preakness and The Belmot – EASILY!
before Wednesday, I will produce an official number for Girvin and see where if fits with the others…
I will be back latert to update this post…
Daily Bias Report…
Aqueduct …(2-24-2017) Rail played SLOW!
Santa Anita (2-24-2017) Played HONEST
Aqueduct …(2-25-2017) Track played HONEST, with some late FOG making the visual interesting.
Santa Anita (2-25-2017) Played HONEST
Aqueduct …(2-26-2017) Track was listed as FAST and played HONEST.
Santa Anita (2-26-2017) Played HONEST
Santa Anita Turf has been playing nicely for Early Speed types this week…
Race Day Las Vegas Section
(Correction added, I forgot to write up Shareholder Value… now updated)
Aqueduct Race #6 Can You Diggit off at 7/2… sat well along inside, then shuffled back to far, was behind slow cover while trying to find a lane, finally got loose, but then took missed step while now in the lane, then finished well for 4th… However, his Entry mate did actually Win, but we were denied the cashing, because the stewards decided to place Mr. Buff 2nd. Not a good call in my opinion… we got the place – with good or bad luck depending on your view. PLACE and made the exacta. We did beat the morning line favorites as well.
Santa Anita Race #5 Shazara off at 9/1 Raced in the back and looked stiff, made a slight run, to get a middle finish. This was a performance, much less than I expected… Basically, a dull account.
Aqueduct Spanish Harlem off at 9/1… ran horribly…in the fog…
Santa Anita Race #5 Money Spunts off at 7/2, even at the break, moved up to be close in behind the leaders within the first 100 yards, then relaxed some on the turn falling back a length or so, then commenced a rally but was not able to find a running lane until past the furlong pole, then rebroke to finish fast, easily getting the PLACE money… hard to know, if getting some racing room earlier would have been the winning-difference maker. The winner had a hard wide trip and raced very well for sure. Got the Placing and the EXACTA.
Fair Grounds…. Shareholder Value… double-digits odds… ran along, finished mid-pack…never threatened…
Aqueduct Race #7 Imasuperstar off at 13/1… as mentioned on Race Day, this play was all about his moving way up on a WET track, and the track turned out to be FAST. Yet at the double digit price of 13/1, I think it still was worth playing. After the gate was sprung, we could see he didn’t break alertly and then got parked while outrun for the lead… these two factors sealed his fate. He battled until the turn for home before slowing down. I would consider following this horse… but No BUENO.
Santa Anita Race #7 Sawyer’s Hill off at 2/1… Was an excellent play at nearly 5/2. SH made every pole a winning one, as he went to the lead and improved his position from there! Winning paying $6.80 and with the EXACTA!
Returns for New York and So. Cal Plays (starting February 24,2017 thru 2/26/17)
NY — Total Return $0.00, Total Cost $ 6.00, ROI Total $0.00
SA — Total Return $6.80, Total Cost $ 6.00, ROI Total $1.13
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 111.00
Total Cost $ 122.00
(Updated to include Shareholder Value at Fair Grounds)…
ROI $0.91 per $1.00 played…(thru 2/26/2017)
All ROI totals are to a $1.00 base play.