Belmont has been handicapped for the Main Track in all races for Sunday…
JUSTIFY is magnificent, while apparently totally exhausted, winning the 143rd Preakness.
A valiant Good Magic attacked early on, bringing to bare all that he had, battling Justify from flag fall to finish and just having nothing left in the last 1/8th of mile. In fact, both Justify and Good Magic were totally exhausted in this handicapper’s opinion. I would argue loudly, that both of these horses “bounced”, but Justify was still able to hold sway.
It’s been a very long time since we have seen a pair of horse battle this hard in the Preakness even remembering back to Affirmed and Alydar, they really never battled tooth and nail from flag fall to finish until their ultimate duel in the 1978 Belmont. Justify certainly survived this massive battle, but I think Good Magic will be well to avoid Justify whenever possible.
I loved Jerry Bailey’s final comment, “we don’t know how much the Kentucky Derby took out of him, and he went ahead and won anyway!”
Coming late was Tenfold and the apparently superior mudder – Bravazo both finished beautifully, with Bravazo getting 2nd money.
One other take-away, that we can remember on a day to day basis as well as in evaluating this race, Good Magic’s attack to the lead straight away out of the gate was a little surprising and probably cost him and Justify stronger finishes. Had he taken back, I would imagine that Justify would have run a “little bigger” and certainly – by that theory, Good Magic would have run ” a little bigger”, and the final outcome might have been the expected finish… Two comments, sometimes determining the Pace Scenario is tougher than the finish… and I have to respect the Chad Brown charge and team for taking the new champ on— nose to nose!
Now we will see if this exhausted and magnificent equine has another to give in the Belmont in June.k later… but your JJPPs are ready right now!
5-16 Belmont Race #1 Terrabyte off at 23/1… attended the pace then took good position in behind the front runners, moved off the rail when coming off the turn, found a nice seam and moved to the front, winning well while full… Winner Paid $49.60
Belmont Race #8 Heavy Meddle off at 2/1, ran along behind the front runners while saving ground, moved out for clear running at the top of the lane, and finished evenly to get 3rd money.
Belmont… Mo Flash in the 8th, off well enough, picked up the running on the far turn, stayed very wide throughout, tried to pick up the leaders late, but flattened out.
Santa Anita… Calexmon in the 5th off at 5/2, attended or made the pace through the early running, took control after they crossed the dirt, straighten for the final run to the wire and remained even, getting beat a nose right on the money… This was a tough beat while holding the PLACE.
Both plays on Friday failed to win or place, they were Astrology Hill at Belmont and Taniko at Santa Anita.
Belmont… Race #8… Wicked Macho off at 5/1… broke sharply, but allowed the inside horse to put his nose in front in the early going, rated just a neck off the leader for the first 4 furlongs, then moved up and then opened up as they turned for home, was kept to a drive while never threatened… we captured our best exacta and a terrific trifecta … The WIN PRICE was $12.40
Santa Anita… Race #8…Eighty Three off at 3/1, ran along near the back of the pack, then started to pick it up mid turn, moving out very wide for the run into the stretch, continued with some “try”, while never threatening but coming in 3rd.
Totals for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $202.80, Total Cost $ 142.00 ROI Total $1.43/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 32.00 ROI Total $1.28/$1.00
SoCal Total Return $145.20, Total Cost $ 132.00, ROI Total $1.13/$1.00
ChD Total Return $0.00, Total Cost $ 4.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 388.70
Total Cost $ 314.00
ROI $1.24 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 5/19/2018)
——- History Below this line ——
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2016 thru 12/31/2016)