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Wednesday May 19, 2010

 Resulting Free Plays:

Today’s Free Play:

Hollywood’s – Race #5…  Value and small handicapping advantages are better than big handicapping advantages and small odds!  Simply put that’s the case with Fantastic Pick as a fabulous play in today’s 5th race.  Consider his excellent come-out race at a flat mile and then the wide early trip going 1 1/8th as the off race.  He gets the rail and has a decent chance, about 33% of the time to return to the comeout race of even do better.  At a odds of 5/1 with the rail as a kicker, I fell good to fantastic…exotic with the 3,5, & 7 …   Good Luck…

Reprinted from Saturday 5/15/2010 — Preakness thoughts…Usually the Derby winner with tactical speed, is a near mortal lock to finish 1st or 2nd in the Preakness.  Also usually the winner of the Kentucky Derby has run a race higher than 78.0, but in this case, super Saver posted a slow 74.8  in the Kentucky Derby.  it may even be more significant that Super Saver’s best number was a 76.0 with a average finish in April (in Ark Derby at Oaklawn).  Kentucky Derby winners usually have run a race higher than 76.0 by the end of January and several hit those numbers in December of their 2 year old year!  The point is that this horse has never demonstrated that he is a true GRADE-I.  Consequently, the aspects of form that I associate with true Grade -I horses should NOT be attributed to Super Saver at this point.  While it is fair to expect a true Grade-I horse to hold his form through the Triple Crown races (at least until the top of the stretch in the Belmont), there is simply NO REASON to expect that of lesser achievers.  Even True Grade -I types have trouble getting a couple of terrific races to go back to back.  We have seen the Santa Anita Derby knock out Point Given, for example.  That being said, while Super Saver might run well, at short money he is a terrible wager in my opinion!  Pick up any of my products and I will send you a Power Page with my opinion for the right key horse and exotics in this Preakness…just to be fair, it’s not far afield of what I said on Race Day today!