August 21, 2010

Another great day on Sunday 8/19 at Del Mar  featuring Holding Her Ground on top at $22.20 to win…But also consider this, AlleyHondro,Sheesjey, Emmy Darlingand Not In This Life were all  2nd rated — simply betting 2x2x2x2x2x2 would have gotten you a winning PICK 5- which was pretty good consider it paid to 4.  That means you would have gotten the entire consolation pool…Let’s add this in, Ralphie’ OLE’ was 70/1 but in the 7th position  in the 5th race, but ONLY 2.5 points off the TOP Rated Tuba Man (who ran 2nd) … I’ve discussed this many times, that races with many horses withing 2.5 points, yields more longshots.   In this case, Ralphi’ Ole’ was certainly playable on any exacta box strategy – simply as a long shot inclusion in the spread!  Horse racing isn’t a game of perfect certitude, but rather a see-saw battle between high probability horses and random events.  Ralphie’ Ole’ was somewhere inbetween but at 70/1 was clearly useable in some fashion!

What is the difference between the Power Page and the Key Horse Selection Sheet?

 This frequently asked question goes to the heart of the handicapping/selection discussion. The Power Page is a detailed study of the recent form of a horse, in speed figures. I call that number the PPN –Projected Power Number — it is designed to be transferred to your racing newspaper and then MODIFIED BY YOU according to your own handicapping, taking into account the trainer, the post position, how the horse looks to you in form and in flesh and all the other handicapping ideas that you believe should be brought into the equation. It’s my opinion that the relative strenght of the PPN’s is the greatest predictor of the outcome of a race and when modified by an astute handicapper they can improve the handicapping result. By themselves the PPN’s order up races about as well as any handicapping material or selection sheet in publication… Note I do additional work on the Power Page with my STAR horses – which have over the course of 12 years proven to be a POSITIVE expectation of about 2%, which is the best handicapping information on the market today.

So how is the KEY HORSE SELECTION SHEET different from the Power Page. Simple, the KHSS starts with the PPN from the Power Page (and te STARS) and then looks at all the other handicapping information that the Power Page DOESN’T LOOK AT, adds those values into the PPN and comes up with the APN –ACCUMULATED POWER NUMBER. The horse with the highest PPN gets a value of 10.0, the horse with the next highest PPN gets a value of 10.0 minus the (difference in their PPN’s ). So for an example if thie highest rated horse had a 70.0 on the Power Page, he would get a 10.0 — then if the next best PPN was a 69.5, then he would get a 9.5, then after that they would get additional values for all the other handicapping factors, starting with Post Position, Trainer , workouts, back power, STAR, early speed and anything else you can think of. Remember, some of these factors might increase the APN and some might decrease the APN so a horse can have a number well above 10.0 or the highest rated horse on the Power Page can have a number below the 10.0 he would have started with. The important fact is this, that with the KHSS, you should be able to use this product as a selection sheet and just look at the 4 horses, look at the tote board and look at anything else you like to look at and make a bet accordingly…

Resulting yesterday — Sea Viper ran poorly at a big price…Salah Salah raced well but tired lately…Looking for Candy did win but who cares at ODD-On, keeping the horizontal plays alive…ON TO THE NEXT..

Saturday’s Free Play….Del Mar — Race #9  … This edition of the Del Mar Oaks is one of the most interesting races and one of the best types of races for handicapper’s who like value.  You can almost toss the 3 lowest prices without even looking because this a race in which everyone seems to have a chance!   I like Crisp at 6/1 or higher, both because she rates out very well, but she gets a STAR on the Power Page which indicates we have some additional upside….Harmonious is also a STAR horse, but I think she will be one of the favorites…This is the type of race were we should see a number of horses with a chance deep in the stretch,  I am expecting Crisp to power on by in the last few strides…Good Luck