Changing Conditions at Aqueduct:

On Wednesday we had a Sloppy condition with all Turf races run on the Main Track.   So since the JJPP was made for Fast and Firm, the now OFF-THE-TURF races had only a little useful information!   Race #2 had a V on Refer (who was scratched), then in Race # 4 we had a STAR on a First Time Starter, do yyou take it or not is the question.  But to be honest, the STAR in this situation is not about form but about other things, because we have no form to consider.  So in this instance the STAR is hard to gauge as being useful or not.  Then in the 7th we had a V on Broughton Kitten, whose good form is all about the Turf, so it’s silly to consider this as useful.  Then in the 9th we had a STAR on Estelle — we know that the STAR means there is good form and Jerry expects the horse to outperform the assigned number to a higher degree.   Here you might have something useful.  Remember, when a horse  is in really good form, they can sometimes outperform expectations.  However, Estelle did actually win, but the price was a pretty lowly $5.80, so I wasn’t too excited about Estelle.  I am happy Estelle ran terrific and won, but in the end, like in most cases, when a good Turf race is shifted to the Main Track, we have lower grade races to wager into….

On Thursday’s card, I have handicapped the Turf races for the Main track, with a single exception — Race #7 has been handicapped for a Yielding Turf Course.  The reason for this, is these are predominately pure Turf horses and we cannot make decent Dirt numbers in almost all cases… So sometimes they will run their best Turf race on the Turf while transferring all the rest to the Main Track… We shall see how they handle it tomorrow… Rain is in the forecast…