Below is a reprint from Sunday’s Blog, from which you could clearly see two potential plays today, Indian Splendid at 9/1 in a 5 horse field and Dapper Drapper at 8/1 in a 11 horse field. Indian Splendid ran a solid 2nd and completed a monster exacta when the absurd odds on fav ran out. Dapper Draper ran a exciting 3rd. So on the surface, that would be 2 places at big odds out of 3 runs in just 2 days of racing. But seriously, it was 2 for 2 with both horses running 2nd and Dapper Draper was simply not as good a play… let’s weigh it, one was 9/1 in a 5 horse field and the other was 8/1 in an 11 horse field — the value is way-way-way different… The Power Page – information that leads to value plays!
Reprinted from Sunday’s Blog:
So here is the main difference between a “professional handicapper” and a very good handicapper who tends to be a little better than break – even. The Good Player tends to only play horses he absolutely thinks can win or –be the right horse! The Professional player tends to know who the most likely winner is, but understands the right horse is actually sometimes the 2nd or even 3rd best in the race, but for certain reasons with the right price is a great bet.
Today we had a perfect example and I might argue that this horse, at 30/1 was maybe not even in the 3rd rated, but clearly the correct wager, in fact the very best wager on either the Aqueduct or BF-Hollywood cards I make the Power Page for. The horse in question was Small Moves in the 8th at BF-Hollywood, who happenned to be rated 3rd on the Power Page with a “1” notation indicating he had real early speed advantage relative to the competition. Just a note, when you see a horse with a “1” or a “2” notation on the Power Page, I am not saying how the horse will use this early speed advantage, just that they have it…
Here is what it’s all about, Small Moves go to the front and hung on for 2nd. The winner wasn’t one that I cared for but who cares, in the end I made a very nice 8/1 on my money, while running 2nd to an EVEN Money horse I disliked! The race wasn’t well handicapped by me, but yet, I did very well in the $$$ department… Sometimes the “1” or “2” notation – is an asset the trainer could tap into to make me a winner…