Resulting the Bluegrass, Wood and Santa Anita Derby by the numbers… Exaggerator.
As often happens, visuals are turned on their head by figures. Broday’s Cause, to which I said was a “return to form”, was a totally substandard performance and not one worth discussing at this time. Cherry Wine and the rest of this group will be expected to try a win some low level Allowance races next and hopefully will be kept out of the important races until they have developed more.
Outwork showed really high speed and held pretty well in the WET going at Aqueduct in winning the The Wood Memorial. While I don’t think he is quite ready for the upper crust at this time, I do believe he has the potential to be a big horse this summer. Adventist also was a bit impressive, but not looking like a Grade 1 type yet…
The Santa Anita Derby was the show – with the show ponies. As Exaggerator showed once again he handles WET surfaces very well. He also demonstrated his Class and if the Derby is conducted on a WET surface, he definitely becomes a serious contender. What I loved about his run, was his willingness to take back and allocate his brilliance to the back half of the race, which he did that panache… Mor Spirit, once again showed he has no love for WET surfaces, but I would expect that he will run very well on a FAST surface. It’s just one of those things, that determines the KD winner, it’s called weather… But one final comment, nobody as of yet is really close to NYQUIST, if I am correct — he has not really been asked to demonstrate his bottom, which might be really – really deep. We should all get ready to see this one rumble…
Here is the one thing that is certain, the filly Songbird sweetly fly’s over the track — to me, she was the real star of this day. Her performance over the MUDDY surface at Santa Anita was a breeze… Here fig was a 74.5 under a double hammerlock… She was barely asked to run and this will be viewed as a workout by me…
Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Resulting the “Featured Play” will be back after the weekend…
3 year olds that rate ! Danzing Candy gets demoted…Exaggerator gets back on the list…Destin and Outwork are new and moving… Gun Runner too…
- Nyquist — Will go into KD with only 2 races as a 3 year old! (Won the Big battle in Florida Nyquist — knocked out Mohaymen)
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance) SHE is really co-top rated…
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, San Felipe and SA Derby set him up for a big race in the KD… FAST or Tight track only!
- Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby,flattered by Outwork, excellent prospect…
- Exaggerator –reappears on this list, with a caveat — only in the slop or muddy… IF the track is MUDDY – he becomes #2.
- Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem- let’s see what he has learned!
- Outwork — now a listed contender, has true brilliance and some staying power, problem is Pletcher is not good at KD…
- Whitmore – another lightly raced colt who is showing some forward strides, this weekend should be telling.
- Gun Runner — all nice races, but must move forward and should move forward, but he has some distance in form to go.
- Danzing Candy — overused on the front end in the SA Derby, but still brilliant early – might have a recovery race in him…
- Moyhamen ( downgraded further off disappointment in Florida Deryb…)
Mor Spirit has been moved down to 3rd, he is simply no match for Songbird, in my opinion… I think he is ready for a big KD, but only on a FAST surface…
Track Bias Report for Wednesday:
Aqueduct: Edge to inside and early speed types…
Los Alamitos :
Race Day Plays for Wednesday:
Aqueduct : Race 8… Sam Sparkle … off at 5/1… Took back, stayed slightly off the rail, moved outside for his rally, but finished only evenly for 4th…
ROI – .98 Total Plays = 123, —- wins = 26, —– place = 21, —– Total exacta 29/123
Total return $241.70
Total Cost $246.00
Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:
Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…
At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)
At Texas Station at 6:15PM … This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page… we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…
For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse. It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million. To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away! He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…
So – this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch. And in the spirit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.