Wednesday Discussion —
On Wednesday’s Race Day show, we discussed the “slowish” time by California Chrome or you might say the “fastish” time run by Follow My Crev. They ran exactly the same final time with exactly the same weight in two successive races! That’s right, the great CC ran about fast enough to win a Non-winner’s of two Allowance race. What does this mean? Well as Ralph opined, that he needed a run over the track to get his year started after a 9 month layoff. That is certainly true enough, and I agree! But I don’t think it tells the story…
More importantly, what happened with the way they ran!
Follow Me Crev’s race was out much faster than CC’s race, so the higher pace tends to help improve the final figure of any race. The fastest races are almost always stimulated by a lively pace — no magic there… They get going faster and the whole race becomes faster. But that being said, there is another theory that once horses get running, they tend to run to their ability and only certain horses race to their cues from the jockeys. As it happens, CC is had always seemed to be one that listens to his jockey, Victor Espinoza. There is another caveat to CC as well, and that once he has put his competition away, he really does slow down quite a bit and he seems to do this all on his own. He’s not lazy, he’s just smart!
In this scenerio I would be more concerned that Follow My Crev might have run to his TOP and is more likely to BOUNCE – more likely to run a weaker race in his next start. While CC is almost a sure bet to run forwardly.
But I don’t think that CC can run forwardly enough to win in Dubai without another Prep race to build up his strength and stamina! The 76.5 is likely to be a 78.5 to 79.5 at best – in his next… So he needs at least 1 more prep, maybe 2 — and then there is the problem of the quality of the competition in Dubai… For me — it would be better if he preps here in the USA before heading over there…
Race Day Plays for Sunday:
Aqueduct : Race #7 — Wild Target, prominent and 4 wide throughout, faded through the stretch.
Santa Anita: Race #6 — Cadet Roni — Tracked leaders near the crown of the track, under nice hold by Bejarano, ready when released to WIN, exacta completed by nice inside run by Blushing Angel $17.00/$1.00.
Track Bias Report for Sunday:
Aqueduct: Slightly favoring to the inside or Honest… your call… Last two races were cancelled due to fog, safety first.
Santa Anita: Track seemed honest to me, with winner’s gracing each and every line and style…
ROI = 1.00 Total Plays = 15, —- wins = 2, —– place = 4, —– Total exacta 5/15
Total return $30.00
Total Cost $30.00