August 13, 2010
Yesterday (8/12), Top-rated horses won 11 from 17 races, while another 3 ran 2nd. Blending in the STAR horses was quite profitable as 5 STAR horses produced 2 winners and 2 places from the 5 runners designated with a STAR. In the case of the 2 place horses, the winner was the TOP rated horse in the race, a fairly natural exacta box in my book…This is the kind of information that shows relative strength and helps everyone…
What is the difference between the Power Page and the Key Horse Selection Sheet?
This frequently asked question goes to the heart of the handicapping/selection discussion. The Power Page is a detailed study of the recent form of a horse, in speed figures. I call that number the PPN –Projected Power Number — it is designed to be transferred to your racing newspaper and then MODIFIED BY YOU according to your own handicapping, taking into account the trainer, the post position, how the horse looks to you in form and in flesh and all the other handicapping ideas that you believe should be brought into the equation. It’s my opinion that the relative strenght of the PPN’s is the greatest predictor of the outcome of a race and when modified by an astute handicapper they can improve the handicapping result. By themselves the PPN’s order up races about as well as any handicapping material or selection sheet in publication… Note I do additional work on the Power Page with my STAR horses – which have over the course of 12 years proven to be a POSITIVE expectation of about 2%, which is the best handicapping information on the market today.
So how is the KEY HORSE SELECTION SHEET different from the Power Page. Simple, the KHSS starts with the PPN from the Power Page (and te STARS) and then looks at all the other handicapping information that the Power Page DOESN’T LOOK AT, adds those values into the PPN and comes up with the APN –ACCUMULATED POWER NUMBER. The horse with the highest PPN gets a value of 10.0, the horse with the next highest PPN gets a value of 10.0 minus the (difference in their PPN’s ). So for an example if thie highest rated horse had a 70.0 on the Power Page, he would get a 10.0 — then if the next best PPN was a 69.5, then he would get a 9.5, then after that they would get additional values for all the other handicapping factors, starting with Post Position, Trainer , workouts, back power, STAR, early speed and anything else you can think of. Remember, some of these factors might increase the APN and some might decrease the APN so a horse can have a number well above 10.0 or the highest rated horse on the Power Page can have a number below the 10.0 he would have started with. The important fact is this, that with the KHSS, you should be able to use this product as a selection sheet and just look at the 4 horses, look at the tote board and look at anything else you like to look at and make a bet accordingly…
Resulting yesterday — GOTMYMOJOWORKING finished 2nd…
Friday’s Free Play….Del Mar — Race #5 …Judgment is at the key of value selections, sure we might feel the most logical winner is a particular horse, in the case Apt To Be Amazing, but is that horses so much better than others to accept a low pari-mutual price? In today’s play, I am selecting my 3rd rated horse My Aunt Fanny as my win/place wager! My exacta horses will be plentiful, but will certainly include Apt To Be Amazing and Girl Of Pangaea…The 15/1 morning line is just too attractive…