It’s Traver’s week, the Misdummer Derby. We will not see Max. Security, we will not see Game Winner and we will not see the boom sprinter Shancelot. I was sorta hoping to the sprinter to try this, considering how soft this crew has been all season long. The headliner is Tacitus, who I was a big supporter of, but he was lackluster in the slop at the Kentucky Derby, he got a tough trip because he has been lacking early speed, and then got into trouble at the gate in the Jim Dandy. The point, the morning-line fav has found ways to lose when winning was within his reach! The question is whether this is just happenstance or is there something going on with the colt that we simply cannot see.
My personal opinion is that the training of this colt has been so focused on stamina, that he has become lazy early on and this just doesn’t quicken – quick enough.
Tax comes back again, after some rave reviews on recent works. And then we have some additional new faces to this crew. I am always inclined in this these types of circumstance to look away from the chalk.
Mucho Gusto comes in for Bob Baffert, who shipped in Arrogate and West Coast to win back to back Travers’. But I have not found Baffert runners to be good bets this season – for the most part. Of course, he is the greatest trainer of this era in horse racing, but past year, going back to 2018, has been substandard from my point of view. His record with odds-on horses has been horrible. This of course, is not his fault, exactly… but then again, it is. It means his horses are simply performing way worse than the odds suggest. And interstingly, over the long run, ODDS ON HORSES are the most efficient, so he is performing quite badly in the most important class of runners – ODDS ON… so for the time being, he remains a potential bet-against until I see the tote board… the one exception is his record with opening 2-year olds…
Bias alerts for Sunday…
Both Saratoga and Del Mar seemed to revert to the earlier meet trends of staying away from the rail was the right move for Sunday.
Saratoga – Power Page Classic and Power Page PLUS
Del Mar – Power Page Classic and Power Page PLUS