Friday May 28, 2010
Resulting Free Plays:
Saturday’s Free Play; Hollywood’s – Race #5… Bad Boy –a WINNER — but like many overwhelming form horses they are underwhelming in the win-price. This was as advertised a decent single in Pick-3 to Pick-6 plays.
Sunday’s Free Play; Hiho Geronimo romped home a nice $9.40 winner.
Thursday’s Free Play; Cayambe was a beautiful OVERLAY winner at 9/1, paying $21.60, fight thehard fight to find value!
Today’s Free Play:
Hollywood’s – Race #5… Yesterday’s play was a classic example of finding a winner that you judge to have value. It’s the 3rd winner in a row I have picked, but it’s the first (of the three) that clearly was a value play. Truthfully, at 9/1 it was a NO-Brainer. Tonights play is not as clear, but when you get good at this type of judgement, you will be tapping into the richest type of value play. It falls under the heading of a “low-priced overlay”. In this group, the typical play is a horse that should be the favorite, but it’s the 2nd or 3rd choice, for one reason or another. It could be that their is something a little subtle about your horse or it could be that their is something that is over-rated about the actual favorite. In real time, your 2nd choice could become the favorite, but simply because it started out as 2nd choice, you can guess that their is some value built into the play by all the people that are simply betting the actuall morining line favorite. So with that type of logic, you could understand that your horse has a premium in it. These types of horses are great for your betting strategy, they win more frequently, so they reduce the length of any losing streaks and keep you in the game! Tonights free play is Costa Marta. Looking at the form (2nd off a layoff, a good speed effort on the turf ,then move to synthetic, in which turf is the weaker surface for this horse ), and the trainer (Marty Jones is exceptional). But when you factor in that high rated PPN on the Power Page, you would have to make this horse a natural 8/5 morning line favorite. The reality is the morning line favorite is Anima at 2/1 and Costa Marta is 2nd choice at 3/1. So now, even at 3/2 I would consider this horse an overlay…My wager will be to make a win wager here and play some pick-3 through my 4 horses listed on Race Day to ALL for $32.00 in a $1.00 base wager… Give it a whirl…Good luck…