Friday’s (4-1-2016) Power Page and PLUS for Aqueduct and Santa Anita are ready for download…

 Florida Derby  2016

Nyquist vs. Mohaymen and some others…

This is such a seminal event, but really there are only two horses of consequence in the race.  There is a horse, I like to call a 1 Number horse, because he has raced only once and therefore I only have 1 number to evaluate the horse on.  So this 1 number horse, Takeittotheedge, is going to knock heads with the well seasoned Nyquist and I suppose, immediately after running in the Florida Derby he will announce his intention to run in the KD on only 2 lifetime races — it really sounds ridiculous to me.  My guess is , this is a bad idea on the part of ownership, and I am pretty certain, Nyquist will break this horse.  But of course, we shall see.    The others are truly a ‘motley crew” with horses that as of yet, have not run within 12 lengths of Mohaymen’s best 2 year old race.  The undefeated Mohaymen is a bigger badder version of his 2 year old self at this point of his career.  Mohaymen rates to run about a 77.5 which would simply pair his best 2 year old number, surely he will rise up to that effort, after two relatively slow races due to slow competition.  To expect more out of Mohaymen is a little too optimistic for my judgment.   A good effort here,  will put him right on the road to being ready for the KD…he doesn’t need to do too much.

Now to discuss the other Undefeated colt, Nyquist.   I have compared him in nature to one of the greatest ever, the amazing Affirmed.  And he might be just as good, but that is something he will have to prove over the next several months and hopefully years.  Like Affirmed, he attends every pace, no matter how slow or how fast the pace is, he assumes the lead turning for home and then outruns everyone, by as much as he needs and no more!  The one time he had trouble, which was in the BC JUVY, he gathered himself up, took the worse of the ground loss and handling problems, then straighten in the stretch and mowed ‘me down as if they were “nothing”!   Nyquist has all the signals of a major horse, and we shall start to see if that is true on Saturday.  Nyquist projects to run 79.5 or faster on Saturday.

To my eye, it’s pretty simple, Nyquist will follow some silly leader, turn for home with a lead and have Mohaymen coming to the attack.  I think Nyquist holds sway, pretty much the way Affirmed could hold sway over Alydar…  Wouldn’t that be something if we could have deja vu all over again…

Try the new PLUS — same as Classic JJPP,  Plus a Contender’s List and more—>

With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key

  1. 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
  2. Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
  3. Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
  4. Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
  5. A Contender’s List in every race
  6. PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
  7. The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…

Resulting the “Featured Play”  — ( A daily play  highlighted with Handicapping commentary  on the JJPP-PLUS)  …  showing plenty of Green!

Update on Thursday night…

  • 4- 1      Aqu    —    Splendid Gold                   Out
  • 4- 1    S.A.  —  Allsquare                   WIN     3.20
  • 3-27    S.A.    —   Bandito Too                       Out
  • 3-26   Aqu     —   Petrocelli                            Show
  • 3-26    S.A.    —   Revenue Virginius          Place
  • 3-25    Aqu    —   Hangry                    Scratched
  • 3-25  S.A.  —   Royal Albert Hall   WIN       5.20
  • 3-24    Aqu   —    Madame Maybry           Place
  • 3-24  S.A.  —   Faithfully                WIN      5.20
  • 3-20  Aqu     —   Tizsomethingroyal        Place
  • 3-20  S.A.     —   Toew’s On Ice       Scratched
  • 3-19  Aqu      —    Surspun                             Out
  • 3-19  S.A.      —    J Serino                             Out 
  • 3-18  Aqu     —   Reverend Green      WIN   5.70
  • 3-18  Aqu      —    Salem Loop                     Out
  • 3-18 S.A.    —  Crushin Candy        WIN   3.40
  • 3-17   Aqu     —   Rich ‘N’ Tuck                   Show
  • 3-17  S.A.      —   Bully Pulpit                      Out
  • 3-13  Aqu      —   Sweetrayofsunshine    Place
  • 3-13  S.A.      —  Warren’s Wesley            Place
  • 3-13 S. A       —    Jenna’s Faith                  Out
  • 3-12  Aqu       —  Hey Bro                             Place
  • 3-11-  S. A.      —  No Play, racing cancelled before Toews On Ice ran
  • 3-11  Aqu.      —   Imperia         Out
  • 3-10 Aqu.      —   Takress          Place
  • 3-10 Aqu.   — Making Havoc    WIN   $4.10
  • 3-10 S.A.       —    Lob City         Place
  • 3-10  S.A.  —   Mr. Cartagena     WIN   $4.20  
  • 3/6 Aqu.   —  Imslowpokerodri  WIN  $4.50
  • 3/6  S. A.  —  W. Giles                  WIN  $4.80
  • 3/5 Aqu.     —   Marble Falls       Place
  • 3/5    S. A.    —  Ketos                   Out
  • 3/5 Aqu.   —  Bustin The Bank   WIN  $4.60
  • 3/4  Aqu.     —  El Genio                   Show
  • 3/4  S. A.  —  Na. From Na          WIN  $6.60

Our Featured Plays are typically reliable short priced horses to use in various exotic type wagers…These are difficult to make $$$ with, but are often very interesting to talk about…

Last week, 3/17 thru 3/20 we were 3 wins, 2 Place from 10 total.

They still have to win and they still need to have a near-positive ROI, our highest Priced Featured Play this past month was Boozer at $14.00 in the 6th at Santa Anita on 2/27/2016.

Cupid now added to our list

3 year olds that rate !

  1. Nyquist  —  The leader in the clubhouse right now, has never been anything but brilliant! (Big battle in Florida Nyquist vs. Mohaymen)
  2. Mor Spirit —  Big tough colt, San Felipe was an excellent maintenance for this distance loving colt!
  3. Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance)
  4. Moyhamen   ( downgraded dispite nice efforts,  due to weaker competition  — development may be challenged — awaiting Nyquist…)
  5. Danzing Candy  — Continuous improvement, ” brilliance “,  the front end just got tougher for everyone, a little lightly races for my taste…
  6. Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem!
  7. Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby, strong finishing move, but not facing first flight yet, interesting…

  Mor Spirit has now improved, but not enough to go ahead of Nyquist…  I will discuss Cupid in a couple of days, to see if we should add him to this list, it’s a definite maybe…

Track Bias Report for Thursday:

Aqueduct: Speed horses did well, but they were not locks… Honest…

Santa Anita : Saturday :   Just HONEST.

 Race Day Plays for Thursday:

Aqueduct: Race #6  — Evolution …off at  4/1 —  Jumped to the lead immediately, made all the running on the front — was not able to hold of the chalk — who ran full to beat us…we held the place and secured the cold exacta.

Santa Anita  Race # 7  — Miss Star Maker … off at 20/1 .. did not go for the lead but took back, followed along well, finished okay while midpack and never menaced… finishing off the board.

ROI  – 1.01     Total Plays = 106,   —-  wins = 22,  —–  place = 16,  —–  Total exacta 25/106

Total return $213.60

Total Cost    $212.00

Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:

Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…

At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Mike Willman, Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)

At Texas Station at 6:15PM …  This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page…  we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…  

For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse.  It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million.  To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away!  He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…

So –  this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch.  And in the sprit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.