Florida Derby 2016
Nyquist vs. Mohaymen and some others…
This is such a seminal event, but really there are only two horses of consequence in the race. There is a horse, I like to call a 1 Number horse, because he has raced only once and therefore I only have 1 number to evaluate the horse on. So this 1 number horse, Takeittotheedge, is going to knock heads with the well seasoned Nyquist and I suppose, immediately after running in the Florida Derby he will announce his intention to run in the KD on only 2 lifetime races — it really sounds ridiculous to me. My guess is , this is a bad idea on the part of ownership, and I am pretty certain, Nyquist will break this horse. But of course, we shall see. The others are truly a ‘motley crew” with horses that as of yet, have not run within 12 lengths of Mohaymen’s best 2 year old race. The undefeated Mohaymen is a bigger badder version of his 2 year old self at this point of his career. Mohaymen rates to run about a 77.5 which would simply pair his best 2 year old number, surely he will rise up to that effort, after two relatively slow races due to slow competition. To expect more out of Mohaymen is a little too optimistic for my judgment. A good effort here, will put him right on the road to being ready for the KD…he doesn’t need to do too much.
Now to discuss the other Undefeated colt, Nyquist. I have compared him in nature to one of the greatest ever, the amazing Affirmed. And he might be just as good, but that is something he will have to prove over the next several months and hopefully years. Like Affirmed, he attends every pace, no matter how slow or how fast the pace is, he assumes the lead turning for home and then outruns everyone, by as much as he needs and no more! The one time he had trouble, which was in the BC JUVY, he gathered himself up, took the worse of the ground loss and handling problems, then straighten in the stretch and mowed ‘me down as if they were “nothing”! Nyquist has all the signals of a major horse, and we shall start to see if that is true on Saturday. Nyquist projects to run 79.5 or faster on Saturday.
To my eye, it’s pretty simple, Nyquist will follow some silly leader, turn for home with a lead and have Mohaymen coming to the attack. I think Nyquist holds sway, pretty much the way Affirmed could hold sway over Alydar… Wouldn’t that be something if we could have deja vu all over again…
Try the new PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Resulting the “Featured Play” — ( A daily play highlighted with Handicapping commentary on the JJPP-PLUS) … showing plenty of Green!
Update on Thursday night…
- 4- 1 Aqu — Splendid Gold Out
- 4- 1 S.A. — Allsquare WIN 3.20
- 3-27 S.A. — Bandito Too Out
- 3-26 Aqu — Petrocelli Show
- 3-26 S.A. — Revenue Virginius Place
- 3-25 Aqu — Hangry Scratched
- 3-25 S.A. — Royal Albert Hall WIN 5.20
- 3-24 Aqu — Madame Maybry Place
- 3-24 S.A. — Faithfully WIN 5.20
- 3-20 Aqu — Tizsomethingroyal Place
- 3-20 S.A. — Toew’s On Ice Scratched
- 3-19 Aqu — Surspun Out
- 3-19 S.A. — J Serino Out
- 3-18 Aqu — Reverend Green WIN 5.70
- 3-18 Aqu — Salem Loop Out
- 3-18 S.A. — Crushin Candy WIN 3.40
- 3-17 Aqu — Rich ‘N’ Tuck Show
- 3-17 S.A. — Bully Pulpit Out
- 3-13 Aqu — Sweetrayofsunshine Place
- 3-13 S.A. — Warren’s Wesley Place
- 3-13 S. A — Jenna’s Faith Out
- 3-12 Aqu — Hey Bro Place
- 3-11- S. A. — No Play, racing cancelled before Toews On Ice ran
- 3-11 Aqu. — Imperia Out
- 3-10 Aqu. — Takress Place
- 3-10 Aqu. — Making Havoc WIN $4.10
- 3-10 S.A. — Lob City Place
- 3-10 S.A. — Mr. Cartagena WIN $4.20
- 3/6 Aqu. — Imslowpokerodri WIN $4.50
- 3/6 S. A. — W. Giles WIN $4.80
- 3/5 Aqu. — Marble Falls Place
- 3/5 S. A. — Ketos Out
- 3/5 Aqu. — Bustin The Bank WIN $4.60
- 3/4 Aqu. — El Genio Show
- 3/4 S. A. — Na. From Na WIN $6.60
Our Featured Plays are typically reliable short priced horses to use in various exotic type wagers…These are difficult to make $$$ with, but are often very interesting to talk about…
Last week, 3/17 thru 3/20 we were 3 wins, 2 Place from 10 total.
They still have to win and they still need to have a near-positive ROI, our highest Priced Featured Play this past month was Boozer at $14.00 in the 6th at Santa Anita on 2/27/2016.
Cupid now added to our list
3 year olds that rate !
- Nyquist — The leader in the clubhouse right now, has never been anything but brilliant! (Big battle in Florida Nyquist vs. Mohaymen)
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, San Felipe was an excellent maintenance for this distance loving colt!
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance)
- Moyhamen ( downgraded dispite nice efforts, due to weaker competition — development may be challenged — awaiting Nyquist…)
- Danzing Candy — Continuous improvement, ” brilliance “, the front end just got tougher for everyone, a little lightly races for my taste…
- Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem!
- Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby, strong finishing move, but not facing first flight yet, interesting…
Mor Spirit has now improved, but not enough to go ahead of Nyquist… I will discuss Cupid in a couple of days, to see if we should add him to this list, it’s a definite maybe…
Track Bias Report for Friday:
Aqueduct: Honest…some might say “closer’s bias”, but for the moment, I will simply call it honest…
Santa Anita : Saturday : Strong favor to the INSIDE and SPEED, no doubt in my mind.
Race Day Plays for Thursday:
Aqueduct: Race #8 — Interior Secretary …off at 4/1 — Prominent throughout, went head to head on the far turn, then grinded hard — to the win as the best — Win paid $10.20, nice exacta $37.20/$2.00
Santa Anita Race # 4 — Dragon Flower … off at 7/2… was in the front end battle from the beginning, but off the very live rail, tussled for control as they turned for home, but was outfinished by Tinderette as MUCH the 2ND BEST… PLACE.
ROI – 1.04 Total Plays = 108, —- wins = 23, —– place = 17, —– Total exacta 26/108
Total return $223.80
Total Cost $216.00
Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:
Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…
At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Mike Willman, Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)
At Texas Station at 6:15PM … This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page… we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…
For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse. It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million. To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away! He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…
So – this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch. And in the sprit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.