July 9, 2010

The simple object of handicapping is to find winning horses that return enough value when they win to offset your ALL your wagers, including all your lost wagers.  To do this there are two simple strategies that work, first -betting fast horses that are missed by the betting public and second – finding slower horses that can jump up to run fast enough to win.  No product I have seen, comes close to the Power Page.  Yesterday’s Power Pages provided a clear example of it’s effectiveness, with the TOP-RATED horses winning 11 of 21 races at Belmont and Hollywood.  With results like that you don’t even have to handicap, but that’s not what I am aiming for.  However, after YOU HAVE found the right value horse yesterday, your exacta “turns” simply with the top rated horse made you a winner in 23 of the 40 races, with 17 wins and 6 place finish, where at Belmont the top rated horse won 11 times and placed 4 time. 

Today’s Free Play at Hollywood…Race #7…As we return to racing at Hollywood tonight,  making betting decision has some connection to the actual odds.  At this time of day, I only have the M/L to work with and the fair odds I have evaluated.  Typically, if you have a Power Page and the top-rated horse is 9/2 or higher in races with at least 9 horses, you have the beginning of something really good.  In tonights 7th race, the TOP-RATED horse is Silver Heat and the M/L is a juicy 9/2, so what’s to think about when you consider that their are only 7 horses in the race.  Think about it, 9/2 in a 7 horse field is much better value than 9/2 in a 9 horses field with all things being relatively equal.   As it happens, in my estimation Silver Heat is fair value at 5/2, so the M/L is suggesting a terrific overlay on Silver Heat.  I will discuss this type of understanding more and more as we go along, but for now, at 5/2 or greater, Silver Heat is a very good play.  Exotic turns should be made with Warrens Highroller, laxered and Pearloftheorient, not I am trying to bet against the favorite Wood Art.  I will press up Silver Heat over Pearlof the Orient and add in a trifecta wheel of Silver Heat – ALL – Pearloftheorient…Building price and value is the object of the entire play….Good Luck