Top-Rated horses romp at Hollywood last night…4 Top-Rated winners including Really Elegant at $25.80 and Fire In Teh Wind at $17.20

July 10, 2010

About the Top Rated Horses on the Power Pages and their surge in Frequency:

The first and most important thing to remember about the Power Page is it’s a handicapping aide, looking to provide a baseline for handicappers to begin their work.  I expect everyone to adjust the PPN’s (projected power numbers) as they see fit.   To make the PPN, I look at speed figures and who the trainer is and NOTHING ELSE.  Not the running lines, not the trainer pattern, not the class moves up or down, not the workouts, not the jockeys, not the post positions.  I leave that to you.  For this to work correctly, you need the PPN to be from a differing source or point of view, to assist you in your handicapping.   From time to time, I make some changes in the way I make the PPN’s and recently, about 2 weeks ago, I did make an adjustment to my methods for producing the PPN.  Since that adjustment, their have been fabulous results!  The PPN is still based upon the most recent races, that hasn’t changed, but I have changed the way I  weight certain factors.   The change has been very slight, but the results of the past two weeks has been major.   The favorite wins about 33% of the time and comes in 1st or 2nd about 50% of the time, but he/she is ALWAYS THE FAVORITE.  That is a real negative.   The TOP RATED horse on the Power Pages is often the favorite, but not always.  In fact last night at Hollywood, 2 of the 4 topr rated horses paid whopping prices of $17.20 and $25.80, but yet these are part of a set whose frequency mimicks a set with a mean price of about $5.00.   I guess you can see why I am so excited….   I will follow this closely and hopefully you will follow it closely as well…

Today’s Free Play at Hollywood…Race #10…Jacob’s Little Bro is the other Mike Puype layoff horse on today’s card.  I am playing both of them.  On Race Day Las Vegas I ave out Genuine Magic who is 6/1 in a 7 horse field, so that is enormous value, but not so likely to be achieved and most likely will be a 3/1 at post time (just an opinion).  while in a 12 horse field, Jacob’s Little Bro is only 7/2, but has a much better chance of going off at 5/1 if we are lucky enough to have this horse get away from the public at the real betting time.   I will make Jacob’s Little Bro my key horse play win/place, with a strong exacta with Willis.   In my Pick-6 ticket I will make them a doubleton…  But I will find ways to have more money going into Jacob’s Little Bro than Willis…Good Luck….  

The simple object of handicapping is to find winning horses that return enough value when they win to offset your ALL your wagers, including all your lost wagers.  To do this there are two simple strategies that work, first -betting fast horses that are missed by the betting public and second – finding slower horses that can jump up to run fast enough to win.  No product I have seen, comes close to the Power Page.  Yesterday’s Power Pages provided a clear example of it’s effectiveness, with the TOP-RATED horses winning 11 of 21 races at Belmont and Hollywood.  With results like that you don’t even have to handicap, but that’s not what I am aiming for.  However, after YOU HAVE found the right value horse yesterday, your exacta “turns” simply with the top rated horse made you a winner in 23 of the 40 races, with 17 wins and 6 place finish, where at Belmont the top rated horse won 11 times and placed 4 time. 

Today’s Free Play at Hollywood…Race #7…As we return to racing at Hollywood tonight,  making betting decision has some connection to the actual odds.  At this time of day, I only have the M/L to work with and the fair odds I have evaluated.  Typically, if you have a Power Page and the top-rated horse is 9/2 or higher in races with at least 9 horses, you have the beginning of something really good.  In tonights 7th race, the TOP-RATED horse is Silver Heat and the M/L is a juicy 9/2, so what’s to think about when you consider that their are only 7 horses in the race.  Think about it, 9/2 in a 7 horse field is much better value than 9/2 in a 9 horses field with all things being relatively equal.   As it happens, in my estimation Silver Heat is fair value at 5/2, so the M/L is suggesting a terrific overlay on Silver Heat.  I will discuss this type of understanding more and more as we go along, but for now, at 5/2 or greater, Silver Heat is a very good play.  Exotic turns should be made with Warrens Highroller, laxered and Pearloftheorient, not I am trying to bet against the favorite Wood Art.  I will press up Silver Heat over Pearlof the Orient and add in a trifecta wheel of Silver Heat – ALL – Pearloftheorient…Building price and value is the object of the entire play….Good Luck