Friday, April 23, 2010

Kentucky Derby Seminar —

I will be at Fiesta Rancho on Thursday afternoon – 4/29  – for a meet and greet –VIP luncheon.  We will be discussing the KD in depth.  

To qualify for the “Fiesta-VIP-Luncheon” , sign up for an Amigo Card, play before 4/27 and meet with a supervisor to get your invite”.

Hollywood Park…Race #6…Sometimes value is the right decision-maker…We have 3 horses pretty evenly matched when it comes to the PPN, which is the most predictive indicator I have ever found, everthing else is less predictive.  The PPN found on the Power Page includes other handicapping key factors as a result of the way a horse actually performs on the track.  For example if a very good trainer has a horse the horse tends to perform better, racing faster, thereby increasing the PPN.  so while we say that our PPN doesn’t include trainer information, it actually does as a result of how fast a horse actually races…   In this scenerio, we have Frequent Fame, Krakow Queen and Sine’n Time, each could make a sensible Key horse or win/place wager…But the difference here is that Frequent Fame has a 10/1  morning line suggesting a 9% chance of winning and Krakow Queen has a 3/1 morning line suggesting a 25% chance of winning while Shine’n Time has a 6% chance of winning.  Clearly Krakow Queen is an underlay on probability and will be an underlay on value at post time, most likely!   So the two horses that actually could be real Win- Price-Overlays are
Frequent Fame and Shine’n Time… I like Frequent Fame a whole lot better on handicapping and on the PPN, so the 3% difference in probability is meaningless….I am all over Frequent Fame at odds of 6/1 or higher!

Bonus Play for New York will be  e-mailed up until 11AM PT….Bonus play for Hollywood will be e-mailed up until 6:30 PM PT  (Night racing)

Sunday, April 21, 2010

Kentucky Derby Seminar —

I will be at Fiesta Rancho on Thursday afternoon – 4/29  – for a meet and greet –VIP luncheon.  We will be discussing the KD in depth.  

To qualify for the “Fiesta-VIP-Luncheon” , sign up for an Amigo Card, play before 4/27 and meet with a supervisor to get your invite”.

Hollywood Park…Race #5…

Today’s race is 6 furlongs on the Turf (at Hollywood Park), for F & M who are eligible for Non-winners of 2 races lifetime or NW1 conditional races lifetime excluding claiming races apparantly.  Sometimes when you read a condition, you might feel like a law degree is required.  I don’t have a law degree, but I can infer that claiming races are not considered because my selection A SASSY FUSAICHI has won several claiming races and finished 2nd a number of times at this very class level.  So it’s quite possible this filly has met tougher and beaten tougher.   What makes this MARE so very interesting is her Turf form, which is stellar.  She’s race twice on the TURF and won both races, impressively.  What she didn’t do in those two races is run quite as fast as some of her competitors have run on the turf, this could work in our favor – because we are not as concerned about how fast she ran in the past as how fast she runs this afternoon.  The fact of the matter is she has demonstrated that she is in great form after Mike Mitchell claimed her and stepped her up for her first win, then stepped her up an won again.  I must add, that the previous connections are looking really foolish to have dropped her to 10,000 to be claimed rather than trying her on the turf.  Mitchell has gotten her to win twice first for 22.5 and then for 28.0 after claining her for a paultry 10.0.   Until someone can beat this MARE on her new beloved surface, the TURF, I will follow her UP_THE-CLAIMING LADDER. 

Make the WIN-PLACE play on A SASSY FUSAICHI…you might try some exacta turns with 4,6,7 & 8…