Sunday  April 25, 2010

Kentucky Derby Seminar —

I will be at Fiesta Rancho on Thursday afternoon – 4/29  – for a meet and greet –VIP luncheon.  We will be discussing the KD in depth.  

To qualify for the “Fiesta-VIP-Luncheon” , sign up for an Amigo Card, play before 4/27 and meet with a supervisor to get your invite”.

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Resulting —  Silent Stalk ran a winning race, but came in 3rd.  It looked like she was ahead just in front of the wire and just after the wire, but lost the head-bob.  Julio had her fit and ready but it is fair to state that the price was a little skinny and price is really important…

Hollywood Park…Race #5  I am back in the 5th today (Sunday) at Hollywood.  If you were listening to Race Day Las Vegas, my comment on the Hollywood-Turf-Course is that its SPEED FAVORING.  While the main track can change from day to day, the Turf courses tend to repeat their prevailing bias, especially at the beginning of a meet.   So I think it’s a real handicapping positive to follow any Turf bias after a meet opens and that’s sort of what I will be doing today…Last week I picked Sindyfromsantacruz who got shuffled back big-time and was lively coming home, but from the far outside with medium speed this horse has two probably trips awaiting her, either to be 3 wide in the first turn and we NEVER want to bet that and the other is to take back and try to close.  Well closing against the bias doesn’t seem like a good bet either!   On the other hand the speed horse look to be Vicotry Dance and Sunny Peace, both of which have huge flaws in their profile, mainly two trainers Van Berg & Knapp who have extremely poor records.  In this case, I like Van Berg a little better than Knapp, but they are both pretty bad in my estimation…So what are we going to do?   The answer is easy, we are going to play Operetta Italiano, with Joe Talamo back in the irons.  Let’s just see if Joe can place OI nicely in behind the speed, save some ground while remaining close-up and gain a couple of tough lengths in the stretch.  If Joe doesn’t leave to much for OI to do, I think OI can get the money at 6/1.  In this case I am mostly interested in the simpe WIN-PLACE play…  Their are a couple of STAR horses in the 6th, so you might try a PICK 3 from the 5th throught the 7th using O.I in leg 1, the 2 STAR horses in leg 2 and a nice spread using the 4 horses in the 7th race that I gave out on RACE DAY (top 5 rated horss on the PP and the 4 on the KHSS) …Good luck

Bonus Plays for New York & Hollywood  will be  e-mailed up until 11AM PT…

Satruday, April 24, 2010

Kentucky Derby Seminar —

I will be at Fiesta Rancho on Thursday afternoon – 4/29  – for a meet and greet –VIP luncheon.  We will be discussing the KD in depth.  

To qualify for the “Fiesta-VIP-Luncheon” , sign up for an Amigo Card, play before 4/27 and meet with a supervisor to get your invite”.

Hollywood Park…Race #5  I have often mentioned this handicapping angle — up the ladder.  When a top trainer wins with a claiming horse and pushes that horse up to the next level, it’s often a good opportunity to follow the trainer’s move up the claiming ladder (I’ve had a horse win 7 times in a row on the angle that horse was Paul’s Hero for Stanley Shapoff) .  In today’s 5th race, Silent Stalk fits that definition to a perfect T.  In this case the trainer is the fabulous Julio Canani, Julio brought Silent Stalk back for 20,000 claming and won brilliantly March 25th – this followed a freshing from January 1.  Julio’s next move is a 29 day break (I like nice breaks in filly’s racing schedules, so this is also very appealling) until today’s race and the class level is up 1 notch to 22,500.  Interestingly, on a seperate note, this horse falls in th top 3 ratings on the Power Page and she is also assigned a STAR.  I don’t reveal the reason for the STAR but I will tell you it has nothing to do with the above mentioned handicapping angle.  So the STAR and the handicapping angle of  “up-the-ladder”  confirm each other (its not doubly powerful, just a confirmation).  The reason for this is the STAR suggests TOP-FORM  (or FORWARD-GOING-Form-Cycle) horse and the up move in class by the trainer suggests that the trainer-Canani might feel this filly  is in TOP-FORM. 

Additionally, there are tow other interesting distaff racers in this race, River Glow and Carnival Queen.  So it might be reasonable to make an exacta box first and then Key Silent Stalk with the other two.  I am also thinking it might make some sense to take the 3 distaff-racers mentioned in the 5th race, with Alphie’s Bet in the 6th race and then my TOP-RATED horse in the 7th race (Race Day las Vegas Play) for a PICK-3 wager…  Good Luck

Bonus Plays for New York & Hollywood  will be  e-mailed up until 11AM PT…