July 11, 2010
About the Top Rated Horses on the Power Pages and their surge in Frequency:
The first and most important thing to remember about the Power Page is it’s a handicapping aide, looking to provide a baseline for handicappers to begin their work. I expect everyone to adjust the PPN’s (projected power numbers) as they see fit. To make the PPN, I look at speed figures and who the trainer is and NOTHING ELSE. Not the running lines, not the trainer pattern, not the class moves up or down, not the workouts, not the jockeys, not the post positions. I leave that to you. For this to work correctly, you need the PPN to be from a differing source or point of view, to assist you in your handicapping. From time to time, I make some changes in the way I make the PPN’s and recently, about 2 weeks ago, I did make an adjustment to my methods for producing the PPN. Since that adjustment, their have been fabulous results! The PPN is still based upon the most recent races, that hasn’t changed, but I have changed the way I weight certain factors. The change has been very slight, but the results of the past two weeks has been major. The favorite wins about 33% of the time and comes in 1st or 2nd about 50% of the time, but he/she is ALWAYS THE FAVORITE– a real negative. The TOP RATED horse on the Power Pages is often the favorite, but not always. In fact, on Friday night at Hollywood, 2 of the 4 top-rated horses paid whopping prices of $17.20 and $25.80 several in the teens and a whole host of T-R’s that paid from $7.00 to $10.00, but yet these are part of a set whose frequency mimicks a mean price of about $5.00. I guess you can see why I am so excited…. I will follow this closely and hopefully you will follow it closely as well…
Today’s Free Play….Hollywood – Race #7: You don’t have to be a genius to land on Mensa Heat. This 4 year old gelding has run 5 impressive races in a row. I love the fact that in this series of races, after the first 3 races Mensa heat got a little brake from March 28 to May 14, and came back running right in line. Then in the 2nd back improved again, running back to his best efforts. My take is this is a very sound horse that is in a very nice improvement cycle. At 7/2 in a 7 horse field we are getting plenty of value to place our play right here. I will be making my win wager with a reverse wheel, about $15 to the win with $1.00 reverse wheel, then I will press up some exacta boxes with Imco Spirit, Our Shorty and a little protection with the favorite. This should amount to about a $30 to $35.00 wager depending on how much you press up the exactas. If you want to bet more on the play, just double up (or more) the amounts. Good luck…