City of Light, Accelerate, Gunnevera, Audible and Kukulkan enter the starting gate for the Pegasus…
In the past two years we have seen races with single horses that were binary, they were winning if they ran their race and that was that. First we had the enormously talented Arrogate. Then last year we saw Gun Runner step up to show his prodigious talent. In both cases, the rest of the field was simply running for 2nd money. That’s not the case according to this handicapper. There are 5 horses that I can make a real good case for betting and set a VALUE LINE between 3/1 and 8/1. The Morning Line on Accelerate is 9/5 which is just absurd! IF you simply recall back to Nov at Churchill Downs, he was only 1 length in front of Gunnevera, who was going the better of the two as they passed the finish camera. Today, Accelerate is shipping into Gulfstream and Gunnevera is racing on his home track. Obviously, the Morning Line maker is cowering to the public opinion and not to any real handicapping standard.
I suppose we should also mention that City of Light equally well – at the 1 mile distance – with Accelerate’s effort at 1 1/4 Mile on the same track, on the same day of 11/03. And when the two faced off at Oaklawn Park, the victor was City of Light. So why would anyone make City of Light 2nd choice to Accelerate. But this is horse racing, and if I were making the Morning Line, I would have Gunnevera at 4/1, City of Light at 9/2 and Accerlerate at 5/1. IN my scenario, Gunnevera should be the chalk, with City of Light and Accerlerate close up 2nd & 3rd choice. Quite a bit different. But this is not surprising. The Morning Line maker made a horse 12/1 this on Thursday who went off at EVEN money. So I don’t think the M/L maker at Gulfstream is really understanding the handicapping concepts. But as we are going to play, we have to!
Beyond these three, there are others worth mentioning and could easily command a play. For example, Audible ran his best races at Gulfstream as a young 3 year old, against some really classy colts. He really has only a single blemish on his card, but truthfully, hasn’t faced stoute competition in the past 6 months, but don’t forget that after his 2 outstanding races over the Gulfstream Strip, he did run 3rd in the sloppy going on the first Saturday in May – which is the Kentucky Derby.
And what about Kukulkan who has never lost and has never been challenged. Who really knows how good this horse actually is. True enough, he hasn’t faced this class of horse… but there might be a deep well of ability that has never been made visible. This colt could be worth a saver bet or a secondary bet. Don’t summarily discard this runner.
What if, Patternrecognition, breaks sharply and secures an easy lead for a well trained horse from Chad Brown… certainly anyone with any handicapping savvy could see a scenario in which this horses takes the field from flag-fall to finish.
And then we have some crazy jockey switches that are worth pondering for sure!
Enough said, this is a great handicapping race and we should all be taking some shots in here… but if you take the time to follow horse racing with me — I would hope none of you bet the chalk!
And there simply are great plays and terrific racing at both Aqueduct and Santa Anita on Saturday… OH– IT'”S JUST ALL TOO MUCH!
Stay With the Power Page…