I am not going to review Friday’s Power Page’s tonight, except to say I had a pretty good day using them and I hope you did as well…

Here is what I want to talk about, the PPN ratings.  More specifically, how much critical consideration should I give to horses separated by small amounts?  The answer is pretty simple, some but not that much.

This has become  a big question,  all of a sudden,  because  I have given out several horses that are not TOP RATED.     Let’s first understand that Power Page is an information source, not a selection sheet.   If  it was a selection sheet, I would publish the horses in order of my handicapping preference and not confuse anyone by saying,  I like this one 1 point more or this one .5 point more.   Selections sheets that do that defeat the purpose of making things crystal clear for their customers.   That’s not the job of the Power Page, because handicapping is not and almost never is a “crystal clear” process.  Just the opposite, it’s a process by which we should almost always have difficult decisions.  In which way the various horses opportunity to win must be weighed  against the price!

I was having a conversation with a customer this week, it was apparent to me that he played too often at too low a price point.   I said to him, if he played Blackjack and was told he would be dealt 20, but he would only be paid 50 cents on the dollar, would he agree to put up his money an play!  At first he was ready to answer yes, because 20 is a winning hand, but it’s only a winning hand if you get paid $1.00 on a $1.00.  He of course realized it and corrected himself on his own.  Sure we all want to get to a winner, but a winner without a decent price is not really a winner at all.  For those of you who bet Reneesgotzip and Game On Dude last week, you really didn’t cash a winner, you just put yourself into a betting trap that will eventually bankrupt you.

Anyway the reason I take the time make the PPN’s and rate them as I do, is so you get a sense of the horses current form relative to others, but that’s when your work really starts, not ends.    You have to consider Post Position and today’s track bias, who the trainer is, how you like the move up or down or around  in class, the distance for today, the workouts and even the jockey as he relates to the horse and the trainer – hey and what about “back – Class”, Early Speed and potential for a good or bad trip.  So I will answer the question again, I consider the difference in the numbers, but a small difference is a very minor consideration.   Let’s jump from beginning to end.  Let’s say we have a horse rated at 70.0 and he is 2/1 and then the next horse in the race is 69.8 and he is 3/1.  All things being otherwise equal, I would bet the 69.8 horses almost everytime.  think of it this way, at 6 furlongs, 1 point is about 1 length,  .2 is just a couple of feet.   Well if you are 1 path out from the rail further than another horse, then you would be travelling about 3.14 feet further at 6 furlongs about .2 …

Even a full 1 point is just a beginning indicator that a particular horse has a serious advantage over another…  So it’s clear, that I make these ratings — for you the handicapper —  to start making adjustments...