Arrogate, the best racehorse since Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.
Bob Baffert just said, “Arrogate is the best horse I have ever seen!” This is significant because in 2015 he was doing the horse racing world with American Pharoah. Nobody has had eyes on more great horses in the last 30 years than Bob Baffert, so I am inclined to AGREE! But I always add in Seattle Slew and Affirmed ( a different discussion, but from now on I will probably have to add in Arrogate into my triumvirate).
For those who did not see the Dubai World Cup, Arrogate missed the break entirely. Mike Smith explained he (Arrogate) was expecting to have an assistant starter in the starting gate with him, and Arrogate was not ready after the load. The Big Boy was looking around and feeling the wind! So when the latch was sprung, he was left flat footed, and within a few jumps, the unthinkable, Aorrogate was dead last!
Mike Smith, took hold, patiently getting him moving in sync. There was no rushing the big boy, just letting him find his stride. Mike Smith later described his approach , after this set up terrible circumstances, he road Arrogate the way he would ride Zenyatta – his words not mine. But with Zenyatta, Mike Smith always tried to save ground for as long as possible, that wasn’t possible today, with the crush of horses in front. So Smith had to tip Arrogate out earlier than he would have liked, eventually Arrogate was widest on the last turn, and then he just gobbled them all up… To my eye he was something like 15 lengths the best or more, but he did it with ouly 4 cracks of the whip, and then the last 1/8th of mile it was a simple hand ride to the wire as he stretched his lead.
One final comment, which I believe is significant… as we watched the rest of the field through the stretch run, there was not one horse closing ground. The horses were simply stretching their positions – this is typical of a SPEED FAVORING track… Overlay that concept with the trip that Arrogate endured, would only serve to accent the difficulties he had to overcome to win…
I look forward to making SPEED FIGURES on this race to share with everyone… please tune into Race Day Las Vegas on Wednesday morning …
The Dubai World Cup
03/25/2017 at MEYDAN ARROGATE (P) 84.5* A Giant! HOPPERTUNITY (m) 79.0 Nice horse in good form 1 GUN RUNNER ( ) 78.5 Challenged for Distance & Weight KEEN ICE ( ) 78.0 Runs late, good unmderneath MUBTAAHIJ ( ) 77.5 Similar to Keen Ice in talent 1 NEOLITHIC ( ) 76.8 Last was a big ask, the ask is bigger here. LONG RIVER (p) 75.0 Nice horse, but out of class from what I can see LANI ( ) 74.0 Last decent race was The Belmont 2016, poor form. SPECIAL FIGHT ( ) ship Hard to guage, but I don't think a snowballs chance. FURIA CRUZADA ( ) ship " AWARDEE ( ) ship " MOVE UP ( ) ship " GOLD DREAM ( ) ship " APOLLO KENTU ( ) ship "
When handicapping all the foreign horses, they all have the same handicapping issues, they have been in competitive finishes… I would say they are running in company that resembles them. While on the other-hand, Arrogate has beaten some of the best in the world by double digit lengths. California Chrome won this race handily in previous years was not quite good enough to handle Arrogate last November, when Arrogate was still a 3 year old. It’s fair to assume that Arrogate is bigger, bad-er and faster now than last November… His race at Gulfstream should have acted like a very good tune up for this big boy… Good Luck…
Here are ratings for the Kentucky Derby Contenders, as if they were racing tomorrow at 1 1/8th…and we all know that the Kentucky Derby is at 1 1/4 mile, so there is more to consider and evaluate… but at this moment …
McCraken 78.5 *
Unique Bella 78.0
One Liner 77.3
Classic Empire 76.5
J Boys Echo 76.0
Practical Joke 73.5
Royal Mo 73.5
Notice in this listing, I have rated on McCraken and Malagacy as STAR horses Also note, Classic Empire ran a 77.8 as a 2 year old and is the only horse with a rating below his best 2 year old effort. We will have to see how he comes back from his abscess injury and at the moment it’s not looking very good, as he continues to miss more time and workouts…
Daily Bias Report… (to be updated tomorrow)
Aqueduct … (3-24-2017) favored Rail Runners, Early Speed was decent,
Santa Anita… (3-24-2017) Early Speed and inside was an edge…again
Gulfstream Park….(3-23-2017) Powerful Speed bias, closers had NO chance.
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Gulstream Park Race #7 Saved by the Swell off at 9/2… taken back to last, moved up on the far turn, to get into contention, turned for home with dead aim, but could not gain on the Early leader who drew clear late… Held well for the PLACE… our play made the exacta, and also the tri and the super.
Santa Anita Race #5 Ooper Wallah off at 3/1… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside… ran evenly in a lackluster performance…
Aqueduct… Race #3 Yummy Bear off at 18/1… away in good order, held position on the rail, had clear sailing but lacked any enthusiasm… very mediocre holding 4th…
Santa Anita…Race #8 Kenda off at 3/1… broke well enough and travel a couple off the lead in 4th position, dropped over to the rail while still on the downhill portion of the course, crossed the dirt a close up 3rd while looking for some racing room, in tight until about 75 yards out, then raced very hard to be beaten a diminishing neck… strong effort to secure the Place, just missing due to a tough trip. Made the exacta…
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/23/17)
NY — Total Return $15.70, Total Cost $ 26.00, ROI Total $0.60
SA — Total Return $61.00, Total Cost $ 38.00, ROI Total $1.61/$1.00
GP – Total Return $~~~, Total Cost $ 6.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 180.90
Total Cost $ 184.00
ROI $0.98 (thru 3-24-2017)