ARROGATE dominates in unbelievable Tour D’ Force…
please scroll down for article.
The Sunland Derby
03/26/2017 SUNLAND Park in New Mexico
Race #1 BALANDEEN ( ) 75.8* Good race at 1 mile in Oct 2016. Nice prep in last, 1 of two horses that appeal to me. KIMBEAR ( ) 75.5* Starting to develop, much better on dirt than turf, I like this horse. BRONZE AGE ( ) 74.8 It's Baffert, but appears in deep, but it is his world and we are just living in it. CONQUEST MO M (p) 74.3 Might be this good, a chance for the undefeated NM runner. IRAP (p) 73.8 Not much "try" in this horse. SHAREHOLDER V ( ) 73.5 Dull in Riesen Star - terrific trainer. HENCE ( ) 73.0 Should run better than last, but deep here. TOTAL TAP (P) 72.5 Definite class hike after winning NW1 at FG. DILETTANTE (m) 72.5 The Coach shows up, but with what type of talent. OXFORD LANE ( ) 72.0 Just broke maiden...really! HEDGE FUND (P) 71.5 Broke Maiden in slow time against lackluster field. WINE N DIVINE ( ) 70.0 Nothing to discuss or think about here.
Arrogate, the best racehorse since Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.
Bob Baffert just said, “Arrogate is the best horse I have ever seen!” And then he made a comment, “the best I have seen since Secretariat!” This is significant because in 2015 he was “doing the horse racing world” with American Pharoah. Nobody has had eyes on more great horses in the last 30 years than Bob Baffert, so I am inclined to AGREE! But I always add in Seattle Slew and Affirmed ( a different discussion, but from now on I will probably have to add in Arrogate into my triumvirate).
For those who did not see the Dubai World Cup, Arrogate missed the break entirely. Mike Smith explained he (Arrogate) was expecting to have an assistant starter in the starting gate with him, and Arrogate was not ready after the load. The Big Boy was looking around and feeling the wind! So when the latch was sprung, he was left flat footed, and within a few jumps, the unthinkable, Aorrogate was dead last!
Mike Smith, took hold, patiently getting him moving in sync. There was no rushing the big boy, just letting him find his stride. Mike Smith later described his approach , after this set up terrible circumstances, he road Arrogate the way he would ride Zenyatta – his words not mine. But with Zenyatta, Mike Smith always tried to save ground for as long as possible, that wasn’t possible today, with the crush of horses in front. So Smith had to tip Arrogate out earlier than he would have liked, eventually Arrogate was widest on the last turn, and then he just gobbled them all up… To my eye he was something like 15 lengths the best or more, but he did it with ouly 4 cracks of the whip, and then the last 1/8th of mile it was a simple hand ride to the wire as he stretched his lead.
One final comment, which I believe is significant… as we watched the rest of the field through the stretch run, there was not one horse closing ground. The horses were simply stretching their positions – this is typical of a SPEED FAVORING track… Overlay that concept with the trip that Arrogate endured, would only serve to accent the difficulties he had to overcome to win…
I look forward to making SPEED FIGURES on this race to share with everyone… please tune into Race Day Las Vegas on Wednesday morning …
The horses we have to consider moving Arrogate ahead of are – Forego, Spectacular Bid, Cigar, Skip Away and American Pharoah (who did not race past his 3 year old season)… WE all have to acknowledge, there is great personal feeling in these types of discussions and there is simply never a clear right answer… but it’s fun as heck to talk it out…
Updated for Bias and Race Day totals to follow later tonight or tomorrow…
Daily Bias Report… (to be updated tomorrow)
Aqueduct … (3-25-2017) The RAIL was SLOW,
Santa Anita… (3-25-2017) Early Speed and inside was an edge…again and again
Gulfstream Park….(3-23-2017) Powerful Speed bias, closers had NO chance.
Meydan (3-25-2017) Strong Speed favoring bias at Meydan… for the Dubai World Cup.
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Gulstream Park Race #7 Saved by the Swell off at 9/2… taken back to last, moved up on the far turn, to get into contention, turned for home with dead aim, but could not gain on the Early leader who drew clear late… Held well for the PLACE… our play made the exacta, and also the tri and the super.
Santa Anita Race #5 Ooper Wallah off at 3/1… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside… ran evenly in a lackluster performance…
Aqueduct… Race #3 Yummy Bear off at 18/1… away in good order, held position on the rail, had clear sailing but lacked any enthusiasm… very mediocre holding 4th…
Santa Anita…Race #8 Kenda off at 3/1… broke well enough and travel a couple off the lead in 4th position, dropped over to the rail while still on the downhill portion of the course, crossed the dirt a close up 3rd while looking for some racing room, in tight until about 75 yards out, then raced very hard to be beaten a diminishing neck… strong effort to secure the Place, just missing due to a tough trip. Made the exacta…
Aqueduct… Race #8 Drama King/Eye Luv Lulu off at 2/1… My actual play was on Drama King and sometimes your entry-mate saves you, that happened here. The usual conclusion is you are simply lucky! That may or may not be true, but over the years, I have found when this occurs, it’s not a bad idea to follow your horse back next out… something to consider… Drama King ran evenly, without incident. Winner paid $6.40 and the exacta with Rectify !
Santa Anita… Race #4 Sky Preacher off at 7/2… rated kindly, saving ground the entire way, moved up coming off the far turn, found a seem mid-stretch, responded to Bejarano’s urging to get up in the final strides… Winning paid $9.00 and exacta with Poshsky
Santa Anita…Race #8 Giant Influence off at 2/1… broke alertly but then turned rank, competed for the lead throughout with Tyler Baze “water-skiing” (observation of Jon Lindo)… never settled and then Baze started to have two hands on the left side of the reign when he wasn’t whipping him right handed, apparently GI wanted to get out… with all that, he still finished 4th while seeming to be running sound… This whole trip confuses me on what’s the next move…
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/25/17)
NY — Total Return $22.10, Total Cost $ 28.00, ROI Total $0.79
SA — Total Return $70.00, Total Cost $ 42.00, ROI Total $1.67/$1.00
GP – Total Return $~~~, Total Cost $ 6.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 195.40
Total Cost $ 190.00
ROI $1.03 (thru 3-25-2017)