There was some discussion concerning my selection on Race Day Las Vegas in the 1st on Saturday. Anillo was the selection, she won and paid only $3.20 to win
Anillo was certainly a Short Priced UNDERLAY in the 1st at Los Alamitos…. But – with a 9/5 ML – it’s possible that the public could bet away from this proper favorite and send Anillo e off at Even Money or even 6/5. The actual betting got it right — betting Anillo down to 2/5. So the proper play was NO PLAY. But understanding that this horse was at least a 75% win probability is at the core of understanding how to make value. As it turns out, these types of plays are actually the most profitable IF you get EVEN money .. Here is the math, bet this 100 times, it cost you $200.00 — win 75 times at a mutual of $4.00 produces $300.00 in total return — yielding a $100.00 profit or a $1.50 ROI….
As our ROI exercise on Race Day shows, it’s pretty hard to find a ROI of $1.50…
Again, identifying a 75% probability horse is part A — WHICH I DID. Part B — being patient, checking for a true overlay price is the responsibility of the listener.
Nonetheless, it’s always a good idea to set an acceptable Overlay price on high probability favorites, they do occur more often than most people think,
Remember, there is a “anti-favorite bias” in horse racing, which explains why the favorite only loses 10 cents on every dollar and not the full 15 cents….