Sunday’s (4-10-2016) Power Page and PLUS for Aqueduct and Santa Anita are ready for download…

Stunning Upset in The Ashland, a nice return to form in the Bluegrass, The Wood was underwhelming and the Santa Anita Derby was loaded with competition and a nice MUD win for Exxagerator.

Two fairly evenly matched – high class two year olds, Exxagerator and Brody’s Cause gave nice accounts of themselves, with Exxagerator running the kind of race that could make him a real serious threat in the KD.  Unfortunately or fortunately, this seems to be partially the positive reaction to the muddy conditions at Santa Anita.  This presents a potential advantage for Exxagerator if the KD is run under a MUDDY condition, then we might have to give him a long hard look.  The win was visually stunning and I can’t imagine that his figure was anything less than sensational.

As for the others, including Brody’s Cause and Outwork, they both really beat nothing, and in both cases were being asked.  Outwork barely hung on by a sliver over a Maiden who shipped in to NY and went off at 80/1.  The horse I selected, Adventist, probably would have won if he stayed on the inside, as the 80/1 long did, but instead Adventist did not take advantage of his #2 PP, preferring to go overland.  Of course, this might suggest that the connections do not think Adventist would like or produce if left on the fence…  IT really is the old ground loss questions, if he stays on the rail, he runs a shorter distance, but he won’t put out, or is it better to lose ground but get more effort out of the horse…  It’s a bit of a “Chicken or the Egg” conundrum, one with no certain answer…

A comment on Danzing Candy, he came out of the gate a touch slow, but had the reigns lifted to release the beast and he ran like one, but he ran very inefficiently, the 22 flat opening quarter was pretty much 10 nails in his coffin today.  It’s good he was hard used early and tired late.  I think this suggests he is less likely to be a suitable candidate for the KD…  But he is a real nice colt and he has tons of early speed…

Here is the one thing that is certain, the filly Songbird sweetly fly’s over the track — to me, she was the real star of this day.  Her performance over the MUDDY surface at Santa Anita was a breeze…


  The Central Bank Ashland                            The Toyota Bluegrass 
 CATHRYN SOPHIA 13.3-FP                           POK-CRESCENT DRIVE 13.7 
 RACHEL'S VALENTINA 11.7                              CHERRY WINE 12.6 
 CARINA MIA 10.5                                      GOATS TOWN 12.5 
 BANREE 8.3                                           MY MAN SAM 12.2
 CATHRYN SOPHI   ( ) 75.8                             CHERRY WINE     ( ) 75.3 
 RACHEL'S VALE   ( ) 75.0                             BRODY'S CAUSE   ( ) 75.0 
 1 CARINA MIA    ( ) 74.0                             MY MAN SAM      ( ) 74.5 
 BANREE          (p) 71.5                             GOATS TOWN      ( ) 73.8* 
 WEEP NO MORE    ( ) 71.0                             ZULU            ( ) 73.8 
                                                      STAR HILL       ( ) 73.3 
                                                      CRESCENT DRIV   ( ) 73.0V 
                                                      CARDS OF STON   (M) 73.0 
                                                      DONEGAL MOON    ( ) 73.0 
                                                    1 LAOBAN          ( ) 72.5 
                                                      ZAPPERINI       ( ) 72.0 
                                                      TWIZZ           ( ) 72.0

    Power Page is below the LINE, and the NEW PLUS is Above the Line

Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP,  Plus a Contender’s List and more—>

With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK

  1. 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
  2. Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
  3. Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
  4. Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
  5. A Contender’s List in every race
  6. PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
  7. The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…

Resulting the “Featured Play” will be back after the weekend…

3 year olds that rate ! Danzing Candy gets demoted…Exxagerator gets on the list…

  1. Nyquist  —  Continues to do everything right, will go into KD with only 2 races as a 3 year old!  (Big battle in Florida Nyquist knocks out Mohaymen)
  2. Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance) SHE is really co-top rated…
  3. Mor Spirit —  Big tough colt, San Felipe was an excellent maintenance for this distance loving colt!
  4. Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance)
  5. Exxagerator  –reappears on this list, with a caveat — only in the slop or muddy…
  6. Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem!
  7. Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby, strong finishing move, but not facing first flight yet, interesting…
  8. Whitmore  –  another lightly raced colt who is showing some forward strides.
  9. Gun Runner — all nice races, but must move forward and should move forwar
  10. Danzing Candy  — Continuous improvement, ” brilliance “,  the front end just got tougher for everyone, a little lightly races for my taste..
  11. Moyhamen   ( downgraded further off disappointment in Florida Deryb…)

 Mor Spirit has been moved down to 3rd, he is simply no match for Songbird, in my opinion…  I think he is ready for a big KD, but only on a FAST surface…

Track Bias Report for Saturday:

Aqueduct: Back to a balance- Honest racing surface…

Santa Anita :    A little edge to early speed types, pretty usual.– THere was a wonderful outside line toward the back half of the card… But inside speed was decent throughout…I guess we would say — HONEST.

 Race Day Plays for Saturday:

Aqueduct :  Race 5… Hey Bro … off at 7/1… Stellar performance – attacked from the outside,took the lead 3/16ths out, continued well but was outgamed by a another more stellar performance Dannie’s Deceiver…we got the PLACE and the exacta.  

Aqueduct :  Race 10… Adventist … off at 11/1… Ran well, while widest through the far turn, continued on gamely to get the SHOW.

Santa Anita : Race 4… Glacken Too … off at 2/1 … took over the lead on the turn, continued on well, but was out gamed by Chief Lion in a stellar performance…PLACE.

ROI  – 1.01    Total Plays = 120,   —-  wins = 25,  —–  place = 21,  —–  Total exacta 29/120

Total return $235.80

Total Cost    $240.00

Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:

Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…

At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of  Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)

At Texas Station at 6:15PM …  This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page…  we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…  

For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse.  It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million.  To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away!  He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…

So –  this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch.  And in the sprit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.