Two big – surprising – outcomes Stellar Wind beating Beholder and what to make of Nyquist.
The easy explanation first. Stellar Wind is a wonderful filly, who ran very well leading up to this weekends event and is a perfect age to show dramatic improvement. At the same age, Beholder started to really improve! Beholder, is no longer in the sweet spot for dramatic improvement, but should still be able to as she is more than a year away from completing the “maturation cycle”. Mandella, explained it perfectly, he didn’t quite have her cranked up, enough to handle such a stellar effort as Stellar Wind provided.
Next time out, it’s highly likely that Beholder will run forwardly – probably more in line with her lifetime best effort from last years Pacific Classic. Which, by the way, would have defeated Stellar Wind this past weekend. Of course, Stellar Wind is clearly in an improvement cycle and will probably run better next time out — also. So the handicapper might have to consider a better effort from Beholder and another better effort from Stellar Wind.
Let’s talk about Nyquist and Exaggerator and Gun Runner. The easiest are Gun Runner an Exaggerator — Gun Runner seemed to hate running in the slop and Exaggerator loved it — as he always does! What is interesting is the Speed Fig that Exaggerator ran, just a 77.8 in winning. This is slow for this group of horse, this is slow for the Haskell (usually the Haskell produces a number above 80.0) and this is a number that seems well within Nyquist ability level as an early 3 year old. Now we are 7 full months of development and he has just repeated his effort from the Preakness — almost exactly! His early speed seems to be intact, so what’s the problem? Could it be that he just does not feel good on a WET track, the answer is Maybe. Or is he hurting in some way, that doesn’t effect his early lick, but once he gets going into the race, his system stops functioning link it did in all his race through the Kentucky Derby? There is no clear understanding here. I will say this, as it relates to my overall outlook on horse racing in general, if the early speed remains sharp, then I tend to believe that things are not dire with the horse, but once the early speed diminishes, along with the overall performance, then I start to feel more certain that things are nor right under the hood. For the moment, I will consider that he just hates Sloppy going… (by the way, I never loved his Wet track effort in Florida either!)
Which leads me to a final comment on Mohaymen. He’s just not right – he’s losing his early lick and his overall performance is challenged and he even is showing a dislike of racing – by “breaking bad”!
How am I doing with JJPP-PLUS at the Spa to Spa meets?
If you have purchased the JJPP-PLUS for both Del Mar and Saratoga, bet every TOP Rated horse to win since the beginning of both meets, BET THEM ALL, today you would have won $368.80 at a cost of only $312.00. The ROI for that is a positive $1.18 per $1.00 wagered! That is exactly how good the JJPP-PLUS has been going Coast to Coast!
(results thru Tuesday)
A few notes on the weekend figs… I did NOT include the races from Saratoga on Sunday, because I handicapped for FAST and Firm, but it was Sloppy and no Turf racing… So there is no proper way to evaluated Top Rated horses in this situation… The handicapping gets a bit tougher and the real focus goes to the “M and P and 1s and 2s – so it’s most accurate to not include in this case… On Monday, we handicapped for a WET main track, so I include those results, except the 8th race which I handicapped for the Turf, but it switched to the Main Track. It’s important to be consistent!
By the way, the figures for Saturday, Sunday and Monday for both tracks (excluding Sunday at Saratoga as mentioned above) was $79.90 in total money won at a cost of $76.00, so I did show a $3.90 profit — with Top Rated horses — over what was a difficult few days…
With my approach, when it’s our turn to win,
we simply do not miss — no zig — no zag!
The Summer Special
Both the Classic – Power Page & for the NEW “PLUS”
Both Del Mar and Saratoga
COUPON for 10 FREE
JJPPs or JJPP-PLUS to use whenever you please
with purchase of either Special!
To purchase the Del Mar Special or Saratoga Special
1) Click on a “Buy – Summer Specials — Saratoga & Del Mar“, (it’s on the right side or on the bar above)
2) Follow the prompts
3) The price for the JJPP-Classic is $120.00 per track and for the new JJPP-PLUS is $180.00 per track
That comes out to just $3.00 per day/per track… for the Classic and $4.50 per day/per track for the new PLUS
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Bias report
Saratoga on Wednesday (8-3)… Maybe a little favoring the inside…
Del Mar on Wednesday (8-3)… HONEST race track inspite of the visual which appeared Speed favoring…..
Race Day Play from Wednesday
Saratoga Race #5 Chasingtheblues off at 14/1, well place, on the inside but had no run when it counted…
Del Mar Race #1 Radiant Jouney — Scratched
Del Mar Race #5 K Thirty Eight off at 4/1… Well placed, moved outside and flatten out in the stretch
Total Return $ 589.60
Total Cost $ 526.00
ROI 1.12