After what was a terrific run of big prices horses and solid results, on Sunday at Del Mar, several JJPP players got DQ’d out of the Pick Six. Bold Papa was going to be the 5th consecutive TOP-RATED horse on the Power Page-Classic, when the Inquiry went up. And once we say the head-on, there was little doubt we could survive that call… It seemed fair to me, but oh so painful… The only thing to do is… reload and take aim!
Terrible Training Jobs! will be this weeks Blur”p”… I am beginning to work on it right now! I am totally surprised by some of the poor races run, from some of our best and most heralded trainers, obviously I will be discussing Bob Bafferts horses performance and as noted below, Richard Mandella will make this list, and there are others… The important thing here, is to be aware, as the tides might be changing some… they always seem to.
Sensational performances, by horse, jockey and trainer! This is one I will be enjoying and look forward to discussing…
I will be Blur”p”ing a Post BC Review… If you want to receive these, just send me an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org, I will be happy to add your name to the list and send you the BC Blurps… this is a totally FREE service… but only for our friends.
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
Aqueduct was the home to 2 plays on Race Day today. In the first play we tabbed an first time starter,dial Josh, who went off at a pretty big price, broke in a slow stride, while racing as one of two back markers, offering a very modest run in the stretch finishing mid-pack, while NEVER really in the hunt.
Then in my next play, Tiznoble in the 5th off at 6/1… broke a touch slow, then rushed up in the first quarter to be right off the pace, moved up to challenge for the lead around the turn and was in mortal combat turning for home, regained the lead at the 3/16th pole to gain supremacy, but was caught in the final 100 yards to be the victim of a stout closing run by the favorite (who had mensa-like money puffing wind in his sails)… Tiznoble raced to his name, and was MUCH THE SECOND BEST – while holding the PLACE. Tabbed exacta of $13.80/$1 and Trifecta of $53.25/$1.
The first play was at Aqueduct, we took a stand on Moviemaker in the 6th off at 8/1. This turf to dirt angle didn’t work well at all… MM was racing on the outside and from off the pace, which turns out to have been a good trip yesterday, but a terrible trip today… Still he only raced middling… with others running superior races while encountering similar difficulties… I might like this horse going back on turf… maybe…
At Del Mar, my 2nd play of the day was Silky Spy who ran a terrific race… going to the front and improving her position from there. She was brilliant from flag fall to finish – off at 5/2, the $7.20 win price seems generous in retrospect, but right at my published fair value… As stated on Race Day, this was primarily a straight win bet…
Sandy Belle in the 8th went off at 8/1 – when the gate open Sandy Belle set out like a rocket… in fact she was in a one horse speed duel with herself… this left her a 100 yard shy of the finish line when she had enough… She might be interesting to follow…
Then at Del Mar, Lady Ninja off at 8/1 – was well controlled after the gate opened to take up position mid-pack and down on the rail. She was “confidently handled” while looking for a seem, she moved outside but still never found a seem and finished about 2 ½ lengths back but in 5th position, while always in behind. There might be another way to look at this effort – which is likely, that she was getting her conditioning in and will be sharper next time…
Race #6 saw our Pop Out Key, Desert Stone off at 20/1… before mentioning the racing this horse “didn’t do”, it was a bit odd, that a Rudy Rodriguez horse would blow out to such a high price…with longshots I do not like to back off because of odds, but sometimes it gets me to “dutch” the play… Anyway, Desert Stone got to the back of the pack – comfortably, started a rally on the far turn, but then flattened out to finish near the back… disappointing!
My first play, Mt. Leinster- Scratched.
My next play , in race #6, Lake Time off at 5/1, ran a credible race, while wide the entire trip, which was not totally surprising as this race ended up being very “bunched”, so with that trip on what appears to be a Speed favoring track and not kind to wide runner, was not able to overcome… finished 3rd in what I think was a good effort.
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $405.70, Total Cost $ 344.00 ROI Total $1.18/$1.00
SC Total Return $321.10, Total Cost $ 332.00, ROI Total $ .97/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017
Total Return $ 835.90
Total Cost $ 810.00
ROI $1.03 (1-1-2017 thru 11/19/2017)