Girvin impresses in another forward move, while winning the Louisiana Derby. While Always Dreaming wins the Florida Derby is a nice race, that is somewhat “dressed up”! Dressed Up is an expression used to describe a horse that’s going to look better then he has actually raced.
The Florida Derby was conducted on a Track that was so fast as to distort all the races performed. As it happens, it seems the track did “normalize” somewhat during the course of the long day. But the opening races were ridiculously fast times from low class horses. So the 1:47++ clocking of Always Dreaming would make many people think this horse is the 2nd coming of Hindu, when he is just a nice young horse that is still a couple of lengths behind many others. His number on my Speed Figs is a 75.8. Usually a KD horse has hit that number or higher, in January or earlier. True enough, Always Dreaming is lightly raced and has been defeating lesser by wide margins. So it’s very possible he has a big upside and is only running fast enough to beat weaker. Another thing that I like is he has now run 5 lifetime races and will go into the KD with a decent body of work. But he will be facing horses that have done much more to date… Difficult to imagine, but not impossible.
Girvin is a little lighter raced than Always Dreaming and he’s raced a little faster to far! His number on my speed figs for his Louisiana Derby was a very solid 76.8. This puts him ahead on talent than Always Dreaming, but he now has to take on the rigors of the Kentucky Derby without anything that approximated proper foundation. But we must consider him a contender, in an upcoming Kentucky Derby that is starting to show more depth than simply McCraken, Tapwrit and One Liner…
We will have a discussion on Race Day Las Vegas on Wednesday morning. so tune in…
Aqueduct … (4-1 & 4-2 -2017) Honest
Santa Anita… (4-1 & 4-2 -2017) Edge to inside and speed… and on Sunday the track played HONEST
Gulfstream (4-1-2017) … extremely fast surface that favored runners who were NOT ON THE RAIL.
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Gulfstream Park Race #6 Art Bijou off at 10/1 — talk about terrible picks…
Santa Anita Race #1 Vibe off at 5/2… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside, seemed to not respond when needed on the far turn, but then suddenly settled on the straight, to a lively whip from Desormeaux and won going away with a late furry in a slowish time…Winning paying $7.20… made the exacta and trifecta.
Aqueduct … Race # 8 The Gomper off at 4/1… broke well to be in and amongst horses, eased back to last, while comfortable, but could not make up any ground, while not losing any additional ground, appeared to need a class drop… overall a C- type play.
Santa Anita… Race #6 That’s A Lady off at 2/1… didn’t show any early lick and dropped surprisingly off the early pace — as Tyler Baze was doing some ODD REIGN work to apparently try to get the horse interested. However, held position on the rail and started to make up ground once they straightened into the stretch, was going best at the end, but only managed to get the place… converted the exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta so the play worked out, but no win money…just the PLACE.
Aqueduct Race #5 Bass River Road…off at 2/5 — thereby becoming an underlay and not really worth playing… took hold and trailed the leaders until the end of the turn, when he moved clear on the outside and took command to win well… made the exacta and more…but only Paid a meager $2.80
Santa Anita Race #8 Avanti Bello off at 9/2… took hold early to stay off the early speed, then dropped to the insided ( I think this horse prefers to run outside)… followed along, was in tight and needing running room when the eventual winner suddenly opened up, finally shook loose to rally well, easily securing the place position, while several lengths behind the eventual winner… made the exacta! Part of this play was betting against Dortmund who struggled home for 4th…
Gulfstream Park Florida Derby … State Of Honor off at 4/1… raced eagerly, but could not get relief from the rail, rallied when clear but the winner was long gone — much the 2nd best holding the PLACE.
Fair Grounds… Louisiana Downs… Girvin off at 6/5 won well paying $4.40
Aqueduct Race #5 Time Squared off at 3/2… took hold to follow the pace, moved up when ready and drew clear to an easy win…paying $5.10 … made the exacta…
Santa Anita… Race #1 Magic Miracle off at 3/1… simply ran mediocre….
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/2/17)
NY — Total Return $30.00, Total Cost $ 36.00, ROI Total $0.83/$1.00
SA — Total Return $77.20, Total Cost $ 52.00, ROI Total $1.48/$1.00
GP – Total Return $~~~, Total Cost $ 10.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00 (2 place out of 5 plays)
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 214.90
Total Cost $ 214.00
ROI $1.00 (thru 4-2-2017)