Correction to Bias Info…Please scroll down…
Recap of San Felipe:
It’s not surprising that my ratings – which are primarily influenced – by the most recent form were spot on – not perfect, but on target. This is typical of good 3 year olds – at this time of the year, they run their number (Current Form) until they don’t! Danzing Candy, came out today, in his 4th race lifetime, to go to the lead and win handily. In his wake, we saw an even effort from Mor Spirit and a surprising “bounce” from Exagerator. The most disappointing effort was from Smokey Image — my take was that he was too keen, didn’t take back at all and then was not able to handle the class – he started to back out without ever asserting his presence. This maybe the fault of his trainer Carla Gaines or the horse just might not be ready to compete with this class — that being said, this handicapper did expect a more competitive run. Smokey Image has been dropped from my KD Contenders’ List, below, along with Exaggerator.
A little discussion on the TOP 3, Mor Spirit appeared to get something out of ths, his late finish was very nice and he surely got enough out of the race. He moves his stock up a notch for me. Exxaggerator, shows he clearly has distance limitation and he also appears to not be able to handle the tougher schedule this years KD winner will absolutely have to handle. With the intense competition and superior brilliance, this seasons KD will be run and won by a terrific horse who will run a terrific number. This is going to take some pounding and the horse better be up to the challenge. Danzing Candy, is too lightly raced and will go after the KD with probably 5 races under his belt, but it will be 3 increasingly hard races leading up to the KD. As we saw with Mor Spirit today, sometimes they need a race that doesn’t hit their bottom, just allows them to maintain, before they are asked to run their lifetime best effort, which should happen on the 1st Saturday in May.
To recap, 1) It looks like Mor Spirit got a good effort, saving the great effort for later. 2) Danzing Candy is now a serious contender, but his form is going to be challenging, just as a short racing history was challenging for Bodemeister and Verrazano and literally hundreds of others, 3) Exxagerator and Smokey Image are off my KD List – they are simply too flawed at this time…
Don’t forget, I may adjust these opinions in a day or two, after I review my speed figs… so please stop back…
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The Featured Play — RESULTING, exclusively on our JJPP-PLUS … showing plenty of Green! (Update on Tuesday)
- 3-10 Aqu. — Takress Place
- 3-10 Aqu. — Making Havoc WIN $4.10
- 3-10 S.A. — Lob City Place
- 3-10 S.A. — Mr. Cartagena WIN $4.20
- 3/6 Aqu. — Imslowpokerodri WIN $4.50
- 3/6 S. A. — W. Giles WIN $4.80
- 3/5 Aqu. — Marble Falls Place
- 3/5 S. A. — Ketos Out
- 3/5 Aqu. — Bustin The Bank WIN $4.60
- 3/4 Aqu. — El Genio Show
- 3/4 S. A. — Na. From Na WIN $6.60
- 3/3 Aqu . — Mascarello Out
- 3/3 S. A. — RunThe Show Out
Our Featured Plays are typically reliable short priced horses to use in various exotic type wagers… Last week we were 4 wins, 1 place from 9 Featured Plays. This week we have started with 2 Winners and 2 Place out of 4 Fp’s on Thursday.
They still have to win and they still need to have a near-positive ROI, our highest Priced Featured Play this month was Boozer at $14.00 in the 6th at Santa Anita on 2/27/2016.
SONGBIRD – Still The Queen of the Turf…
3 year olds that rate !
- Nyquist — The leader in the clubhouse right now, has never been anything but brilliant!
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, raced like a champ in last, let’s see if he can go for two in a row!
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance)
- Moyhamen ( downgraded dispite nice efforts, slower to develop due to weaker competition…)
- Danzing Candy — Continuous improvement, plenty brilliance… a little lightly races for my taste…
Exaggerator and Smokey Image have both been dropped from the list… Mor Spirit has now improved, but not enough to go ahead of Nyquist…
Track Bias Report for Saturday:
Aqueduct: Definitely, speed favoring, but if there was too much going on up-front, closer could make a move.
I am amending the previous statement to the following… Five STAR Inside bias, especially through the opening 5 races, Inside Speed horses took great advantage, but closing runners were able to make good headway, so long as they were on the INSIDE. The track started to Even out after the 5th race, the Inside remained a slight advantage thereafter… Horses that really impressed me were Possetrano Prince, Hey Bro and the best horse of the day, Dixie Runner…
Santa Anita : Speed favoring on the Main Track…
Race Day Plays for Saturday:
Aqueduct: Race #4 — Castaway…off at 5/2… broke a step slow, moved into the herd in the 2 path, following along in 5th or 6th, came out for the stretch run, but could not make headway…
Santa Anita: Race #9 — Coastline — off at 13/1 … well handled in and behind horses, saving ground, found a seem at the top of the stretch and made a bold move – splitting horses, finished well, simply not as good as Kobe’s Back… Nice exacta we cash at $29.40/1
ROI – 1.17 Total Plays = 86, —- wins = 20, —– place = 12, —– Total exacta 19/86
Total return $201.20
Total Cost $172.00