Turf racing returns to New York at Aqueduct…
Today’s 8th race is our first Turf race of the season. These are not Stakes caliber horses opening the season, just a nice group New York State Bred NW1 Allowance fillies. This is good “stock” race to handicap — the favorite appears to be Detail from the Chad Brown barn with the incredible Irad Ortiz Jr up — tough combination, but this is a competitive race and it might be a place to “rock a price” and you can always play an exact with Chad. Lot’s of ways to play in here…
Nyquist rolls to an easy win in the Florida Derby 2016.
My chart call: Nyquist took to the early lead right out of the gate, waited for some competition to come to him, dispatched them on the backstretch as they entered the far turn. Mohaymen also began his rally, moving up – wide – to get within 1 1/2 lengths of Nyquist midway on the far turn, but could get no closer. Nyquist extended his stride, exposing his superiority, dismissing the rest without raising a sweat — in my opinion.
Mohaymen’s wide early trip — probably was too much for him to overcome. This would be an excuse if he was beaten a couple of lengths, while remaining competitive to the end. But the reality is, the early difficulties kept him from competing, he just does not appear to be of the same class as Nyquist.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and we heard quite a few, the silliest of them all was from the public that made Mohaymen the favorite over Nyquist. I had rated Nyquist at 4 lengths faster than Mohaymen, but that didn’t begin to tell the tale. The real truth is — the difference between the two is probably much greater. I was hopeful that Mohaymen might be ready to start showing proper development, but the reality is, he was a faster two year old than he is as a 3 year old and when he encountered real competition, his flaws were shown for all to see, something is either hurting this horse or he doesn’t have the next gear. What that means in terms of future form for Mohaymen is he will probably make an occasional fast race, but not a steady run of good races for big prizes.
I am a little sad about this, because I had hoped that Mohaymen would play Alydar to Nyquist rendition of Affirmed. Once again, I see the fair comparison between Nyquist and the truly great Affirmed. Again, Nyquist made the early running, in this case there was absolutely no other horse with enough lick to make the lead. It was easy to see Nyquist, just waiting for horses to come to him and when they did he ran away…plain and simple… Can anyone imagine how fast this horse could actually run — if there was some competition that merited his respect!
So we are back to looking for competition for Nyquist, and again we are looking at the great filly Songbird, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy and Cupid and a few others that might be ready to step forward.
It may be awhile before we see the true battle royale — Nyquist vs. Songbird!
One last comment… and this is a prediction that is way over the top… But at this stage, when the form is synchronized– matching up the form American Pharoah to Nyquist as of Early April of each horses respective year, I would take Nyquist and that is knowing, which we all came to know — just how good American Pharoah could become and did become! I think the horizon for Nyquist is magnificent — but only time and Nyquist’s hopeful resilience can prove this out.
So my early opinon on the crop was — that it was a great crop. This opinion is slightly tarnished now — it is evident that Mohaymen is just pretender and he was a major player in this being a “great crop”. But there is no doubt in my mind that Nyquist is still on the road to true greatness, but that is something he will have to still prove on the track…
Try the new PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Resulting the “Featured Play” — ( A daily play highlighted with Handicapping commentary on the JJPP-PLUS) … showing plenty of Green!
Update on Thursday night…
- 4- 1 Aqu — Splendid Gold Out
- 4- 1 S.A. — Allsquare WIN 3.20
- 3-27 S.A. — Bandito Too Out
- 3-26 Aqu — Petrocelli Show
- 3-26 S.A. — Revenue Virginius Place
- 3-25 Aqu — Hangry Scratched
- 3-25 S.A. — Royal Albert Hall WIN 5.20
- 3-24 Aqu — Madame Maybry Place
- 3-24 S.A. — Faithfully WIN 5.20
- 3-20 Aqu — Tizsomethingroyal Place
- 3-20 S.A. — Toew’s On Ice Scratched
- 3-19 Aqu — Surspun Out
- 3-19 S.A. — J Serino Out
- 3-18 Aqu — Reverend Green WIN 5.70
- 3-18 Aqu — Salem Loop Out
- 3-18 S.A. — Crushin Candy WIN 3.40
- 3-17 Aqu — Rich ‘N’ Tuck Show
- 3-17 S.A. — Bully Pulpit Out
- 3-13 Aqu — Sweetrayofsunshine Place
- 3-13 S.A. — Warren’s Wesley Place
- 3-13 S. A — Jenna’s Faith Out
- 3-12 Aqu — Hey Bro Place
- 3-11- S. A. — No Play, racing cancelled before Toews On Ice ran
- 3-11 Aqu. — Imperia Out
- 3-10 Aqu. — Takress Place
- 3-10 Aqu. — Making Havoc WIN $4.10
- 3-10 S.A. — Lob City Place
- 3-10 S.A. — Mr. Cartagena WIN $4.20
- 3/6 Aqu. — Imslowpokerodri WIN $4.50
- 3/6 S. A. — W. Giles WIN $4.80
- 3/5 Aqu. — Marble Falls Place
- 3/5 S. A. — Ketos Out
- 3/5 Aqu. — Bustin The Bank WIN $4.60
- 3/4 Aqu. — El Genio Show
- 3/4 S. A. — Na. From Na WIN $6.60
Our Featured Plays are typically reliable short priced horses to use in various exotic type wagers…These are difficult to make $$$ with, but are often very interesting to talk about…
Last week, 3/17 thru 3/20 we were 3 wins, 2 Place from 10 total.
They still have to win and they still need to have a near-positive ROI, our highest Priced Featured Play this past month was Boozer at $14.00 in the 6th at Santa Anita on 2/27/2016.
Mohaymen dropped to the bottom
3 year olds that rate !
- Nyquist — Continues to do everything right, will go into KD with only 2 races as a 3 year old! (Big battle in Florida Nyquist knocks out Mohaymen)
- Mor Spirit — Big tough colt, San Felipe was an excellent maintenance for this distance loving colt!
- Songbird (the fabulous filly – she could be the best, no competition so far — full of brilliance)
- Danzing Candy — Continuous improvement, ” brilliance “, the front end just got tougher for everyone, a little lightly races for my taste..
- Cupid — ran almost as fast as Danzing Candy and like DC, very lightly raced, which at some point will become a problem!
- Destin — winner of Tampa Bay Derby, strong finishing move, but not facing first flight yet, interesting…
- Whitmore – another lightly raced colt who is showing some forward strides.
- Gun Runner — all nice races, but must move forward and should move forward
- Moyhamen ( downgraded further off disappointment in Florida Deryb…)
Mor Spirit has now improved, but not enough to go ahead of Nyquist… I will discuss Cupid in a couple of days, to see if we should add him to this list, it’s a definite maybe…
Track Bias Report for Sunday:
Aqueduct: Races Cancelled on Sunda
Santa Anita : Saturday : Seemed pretty honest.
Race Day Plays for Sunday:
Aqueduct : no place as the races were cancelled…
Santa Anita : Race # 1: Jeana Baby … off at 7/1,well place, made a decent looking run, held well while not quite good enough — finishing 4th..
ROI – 1.01 Total Plays = 111, —- wins = 23, —– place = 18, —– Total exacta 27/111
Total return $223.80
Total Cost $222.00
Kentucky Derby Seminars with Jerry J:
Two seminars again — just like last year… both on Friday — May 6th…
At Sam’s Town at 4:00 PM, as Ralph Siraco MC’s a panel of Jon Lindo and ME (Jerry J)
At Texas Station at 6:15PM … This is my SOLO ACT… loaded with handicapping stuff… including my Speed Figs (the ones I build the JJPP from) and the KD Power Page… we can expect refreshments and more give-a-ways…
For 16 of the past 18 years, I have been fortunate to do a Seminar for Stations Casino, and very much enjoy doing our Solo Seminar, this allows us to get deep into the form of each horse. It’s only just over 10 years since we came up with Giacomo and Mad About You, to which several of my customer’s came up with mega scores, one even, my dear friend Larry Bloch, took down the Superfecta and Trifecta and slightly more than $1 Million. To which – to the amazement and awe of all of Larry’s friends and family, he gave it all away! He had the score of a lifetime and shared it with friends and family…
So – this seminar – like all my Kentucky Derby seminars is to honor the memory of my friend – Larry Bloch. And in the sprit of Larry B, we will be looking to find another “appropriate” play in this years edition of the Kentucky Derby.